TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12306712
Played Jul 27Finished
Karl Zimmermann
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511911118115118
Kai Moosmann
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeKarl Zimmermann to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarl Zimmermann above · Kai Moosmann below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Karl Zimmermann at 57.7%
90 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:21What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Zimmermann
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Zimmermann 1513 vs Moosmann 1280
Zimmermann
Correct
both rated, 233 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zimmermann 60% vs Moosmann 0%
Zimmermann
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zimmermann 40% vs Moosmann 20%
Zimmermann
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zimmermann +2 · Moosmann -5
Moosmann
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Zimmermann) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moosmann form (0%) is below what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZimmermann 1.20 / Moosmann 4.33
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Zimmermann)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12306712
Zimmermann1.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Moosmann4.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricZimmermannMoosmannBasisWin rate · lifetime9 / 17 vs 11 / 4252.9%26.2%9 / 17 vs 11 / 42Avg sets wonper match1.71.2per matchAvg pointsper match32.529.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZimmermannZimmermann 1.20/Moosmann 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.3%
Zimmermann · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zimmermann won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
K. Zimmermann10
LSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 08:30S. Almeida—119111172K. Zimmermann—131199113LAug 31 · 17:00A. Limonov1.3011119113K. Zimmermann3.40691151LAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:00K. Zimmermann—11118113M. Stefanidis—661161WAug 31 · 11:30S. Amann8.007860K. Zimmermann1.061111113WAug 31 · 09:30M. Gremillion3.75441151K. Zimmermann1.2511115113WAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113LAug 7 · 11:00A. Mino1.08117611113K. Zimmermann5.4061111622
K. Moosmann10
WJul 28 · 06:30S. Happek1.201011101192K. Moosmann4.33125122113LJul 27 · 16:30N. Kizakisz—71111113K. Moosmann—115491LJul 27 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.52591111113K. Moosmann2.2711118582LJul 27 · 13:30K. Moosmann8.001311451K. Fadeev1.0615911113LJul 27 · 11:30K. Moosmann7.50631151O. Kosolosky1.0711117113LJul 27 · 10:00K. Moosmann2.20911126122M. Fuchs1.611171011143LJul 27 · 08:00J. Loffler1.32111211113K. Moosmann3.00514571LDec 19 · 09:30R. Turrini1.021112113K. Moosmann11.0091080LDec 18 · 16:00M. Scharrer1.251111113K. Moosmann3.757570WDec 18 · 14:00K. Moosmann1.131111113J. Grauer5.505580
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