TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12305198
Played Jul 27Finished
Kai Moosmann
Home
7.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611311117511––
Olav Kosolosky
Away
1.07
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:59 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeOlav Kosolosky to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKai Moosmann above · Olav Kosolosky below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 65 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Olav Kosolosky at 54.6%
65 points played in total.
H2H Kai Moosmann 0–1 Olav Kosolosky Kai Moosmann has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.07 (88%)
Kosolosky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Moosmann 1284 vs Kosolosky 1925
Kosolosky
Correct
both rated, 642 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moosmann 20% vs Kosolosky 60%
Kosolosky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moosmann 20% vs Kosolosky 70%
Kosolosky
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moosmann -4 · Kosolosky +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Kosolosky) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosolosky form (60%) is below what odds imply (93%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoosmann 7.50 / Kosolosky 1.07
Signal prob.13% / 88%
Edge (Kosolosky)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12305198
Moosmann7.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Kosolosky1.07
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMoosmann0wins
AwayKosolosky1wins
Kosolosky leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricMoosmannKosoloskyM − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match22.034.0−12.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoosmannKosoloskyBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 42 vs 48 / 6626.2%72.7%11 / 42 vs 48 / 66Avg sets wonper match1.22.5per matchAvg pointsper match29.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosoloskyMoosmann 7.50/Kosolosky 1.07
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.5%
Kosolosky · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kosolosky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 25 · 10:00K. Moosmann—51070O. Kosolosky—1112113
K. Moosmann10
WJul 28 · 06:30S. Happek1.201011101192K. Moosmann4.33125122113LJul 27 · 16:30N. Kizakisz—71111113K. Moosmann—115491LJul 27 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.52591111113K. Moosmann2.2711118582LJul 27 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.20591111113K. Moosmann4.3311118582LJul 27 · 13:30K. Moosmann8.001311451K. Fadeev1.0615911113LJul 27 · 10:00K. Moosmann2.20911126122M. Fuchs1.611171011143LJul 27 · 08:00J. Loffler1.32111211113K. Moosmann3.00514571LDec 19 · 09:30R. Turrini1.021112113K. Moosmann11.0091080LDec 18 · 16:00M. Scharrer1.251111113K. Moosmann3.757570WDec 18 · 14:00K. Moosmann1.131111113J. Grauer5.505580
O. Kosolosky10
WAug 30 · 14:15O. Kosolosky—11117113F. Rakotoarimanana—791181WAug 29 · 14:30J. Jimenez—5350O. Kosolosky—1111113LAug 28 · 14:18O. Kosolosky1.30521181M. Lovha3.4011119113WAug 14 · 10:59O. Kosolosky2.00671111113D. Cheaib1.7311119352WAug 14 · 09:15O. Kosolosky1.1011711113M. Stefanidis6.00311501WAug 14 · 08:00O. Kosolosky1.1791111113M. Neumaier4.50114671WAug 13 · 17:00O. Kosolosky1.051111113M. Kupfer8.507570WAug 13 · 15:00O. Kosolosky—1111113M. Stefanidis—6550WAug 13 · 14:00O. Kosolosky1.441111113L. Qiu2.636370WAug 13 · 10:30O. Kosolosky1.03118911113D. Zech10.0011111762
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