TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12305194
Played Jul 27Finished
Kai Moosmann
Home
8.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1315119411511––
Kirill Fadeev
Away
1.06
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKai Moosmann to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKai Moosmann above · Kirill Fadeev below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 79 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Kai Moosmann at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Kai Moosmann 0–1 Kirill Fadeev Kai Moosmann has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:57What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.06 (88%)
Fadeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Moosmann 1283 vs Fadeev 1752
Fadeev
Correct
both rated, 469 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moosmann 0% vs Fadeev 20%
Fadeev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moosmann 20% vs Fadeev 40%
Fadeev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moosmann -5 · Fadeev -1
Moosmann
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Fadeev) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fadeev form (20%) is below what odds imply (94%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoosmann 8.00 / Fadeev 1.06
Signal prob.12% / 88%
Edge (Fadeev)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12305194
Moosmann8.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Fadeev1.06
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMoosmann0wins
AwayFadeev1wins
Fadeev leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricMoosmannFadeevM − FBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match20.033.0−13.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoosmannFadeevBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 42 vs 107 / 15026.2%71.3%11 / 42 vs 107 / 150Avg sets wonper match1.22.5per matchAvg pointsper match29.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevMoosmann 8.00/Fadeev 1.06
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.3%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LDec 18 · 08:30K. Moosmann—4790K. Fadeev—1111113
K. Moosmann10
WJul 28 · 06:30S. Happek1.201011101192K. Moosmann4.33125122113LJul 27 · 16:30N. Kizakisz—71111113K. Moosmann—115491LJul 27 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.52591111113K. Moosmann2.2711118582LJul 27 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.20591111113K. Moosmann4.3311118582LJul 27 · 11:30K. Moosmann7.50631151O. Kosolosky1.0711117113LJul 27 · 10:00K. Moosmann2.20911126122M. Fuchs1.611171011143LJul 27 · 08:00J. Loffler1.32111211113K. Moosmann3.00514571LDec 19 · 09:30R. Turrini1.021112113K. Moosmann11.0091080LDec 18 · 16:00M. Scharrer1.251111113K. Moosmann3.757570WDec 18 · 14:00K. Moosmann1.131111113J. Grauer5.505580
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Amann8.504740K. Fadeev1.05111183WAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion7.00512100K. Fadeev1.081114123LAug 31 · 07:00S. Almeida2.17111510143K. Fadeev1.6291312121
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