TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13090011
Played Sep 7Finished
Kento Waltl
Home
6.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–5Last 8Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119411811611––
Kirill Fadeev
Away
1.11
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:13 and never touched — 84.4% is still 84.4%
Graded at full timeKirill Fadeev to win
84.4%
84.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKento Waltl above · Kirill Fadeev below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Kirill Fadeev at 84.4%
71 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:13What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Fadeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Waltl 1304 vs Fadeev 1690
Fadeev
Correct
both rated, 387 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Waltl 20% vs Fadeev 60%
Fadeev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Waltl 38% vs Fadeev 50%
—
Too close
13pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Waltl -2 · Fadeev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Fadeev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fadeev form (60%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWaltl 6.00 / Fadeev 1.11
Signal prob.16% / 84%
Edge (Fadeev)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13090011
Waltl6.00
38%won 3 of 8 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest38%takes the first set · 3 of 8
Fadeev1.11
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricWaltlFadeevBasisWin rate · lifetime3 / 7 vs 95 / 14442.9%66%3 / 7 vs 95 / 144Avg sets wonper match1.72.3per matchAvg pointsper match34.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevWaltl 6.00/Fadeev 1.11
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.4%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fadeev won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
K. Waltl8
LAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 08:45M. Danzer1.061111113K. Waltl8.003530WAug 11 · 07:00K. Waltl1.171112113M. Ozdemir4.5061050LAug 10 · 12:30M. Stefanidis—1111117113K. Waltl—56131192LAug 10 · 11:30M. Danzer1.081117113K. Waltl7.0051510LAug 10 · 09:58J. Willeke1.5312711113K. Waltl2.381011631WAug 10 · 09:00S. Amann2.3810111391K. Waltl1.5312715113WAug 10 · 06:30J. Grauer—812111172K. Waltl—1110813113
K. Fadeev10
WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Amann8.504740K. Fadeev1.05111183WAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion7.00512100K. Fadeev1.081114123LAug 31 · 07:00S. Almeida2.17111510143K. Fadeev1.6291312121LAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:44K. Zimmermann4.331111113K. Fadeev1.204930
Upcoming Matches
K. Waltl1 of 5 neutral
K. Fadeev
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