TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12402459
Played Aug 11Finished
Matthias Danzer
Home
1.06
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113115113––––
Kento Waltl
Away
8.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–3Last 6Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:43 and never touched — 62.6% is still 62.6%
Graded at full timeMatthias Danzer to win
62.6%
62.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatthias Danzer above · Kento Waltl below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 44 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Matthias Danzer at 62.6%
44 points played in total.
H2H Matthias Danzer 1–0 Kento Waltl Kento Waltl has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.06 (88%)
Danzer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Danzer 1820 vs Waltl 1321
Danzer
Correct
both rated, 498 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Danzer 100% vs Waltl 40%
Danzer
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Danzer 70% vs Waltl 50%
Danzer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Danzer +5 · Waltl +1
Danzer
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Danzer) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Waltl form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (13%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanzer 1.06 / Waltl 8.00
Signal prob.88% / 12%
Edge (Danzer)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12402459
Danzer1.06
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Waltl8.00
50%won 3 of 6 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 3 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDanzer1wins
AwayWaltl0wins
Danzer leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDanzerWaltlD − WBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match39.021.0+18.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanzerWaltlBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 265 vs 3 / 675.1%50%199 / 265 vs 3 / 6Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanzerDanzer 1.06/Waltl 8.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.3%
Danzer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Danzer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 10 · 11:30M. Danzer—1117113K. Waltl—51510
M. Danzer10
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161WAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger6.5011311692M. Danzer1.10911911113LAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113WAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860WAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 21 · 11:00M. Danzer1.251111163N. Kizakisz3.4066140
K. Waltl9
LSep 7 · 09:30K. Waltl4.331187121V. Senkbeil1.2041111143LSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113LAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113WAug 11 · 07:00K. Waltl1.171112113M. Ozdemir4.5061050LAug 10 · 12:30M. Stefanidis—1111117113K. Waltl—56131192LAug 10 · 11:30M. Danzer1.081117113K. Waltl7.0051510LAug 10 · 09:58J. Willeke1.5312711113K. Waltl2.381011631WAug 10 · 09:00S. Amann2.3810111391K. Waltl1.5312715113WAug 10 · 06:30J. Grauer—812111172K. Waltl—1110813113
Upcoming Matches
M. Danzer
Nothing scheduled
K. Waltl1 of 5 neutral
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