TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12397137
Played Aug 11Finished
Kento Waltl
Home
1.17
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–3Last 5Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161210115––––
Melih Ozdemir
Away
4.50
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:52 and never touched — 75.0% is still 75.0%
Graded at full timeKento Waltl to win
75.0%
75.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKento Waltl above · Melih Ozdemir below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 55 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Kento Waltl at 75.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Kento Waltl 1–0 Melih Ozdemir Melih Ozdemir has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:52What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Waltl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Waltl 1304 vs Ozdemir 1003
Waltl
Correct
both rated, 300 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Waltl 40% vs Ozdemir 0%
Waltl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Waltl 40% vs Ozdemir 0%
Waltl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Waltl -3 · Ozdemir -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Waltl) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ozdemir form (0%) is below what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWaltl 1.17 / Ozdemir 4.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Waltl)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12397137
Waltl1.17
40%won 2 of 5 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 2 of 5
Ozdemir4.50
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeWaltl1wins
AwayOzdemir0wins
Waltl leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricWaltlOzdemirW − OBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.021.0+13.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWaltlOzdemirBasisWin rate · lifetime3 / 7 vs 2 / 742.9%28.6%3 / 7 vs 2 / 7Avg sets wonper match1.70.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.021.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WaltlWaltl 1.17/Ozdemir 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Waltl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Waltl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 11 · 07:00K. Waltl—1112113M. Ozdemir—61050
K. Waltl9
LSep 7 · 09:30K. Waltl4.331187121V. Senkbeil1.2041111143LSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113LAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 08:45M. Danzer1.061111113K. Waltl8.003530LAug 10 · 12:30M. Stefanidis—1111117113K. Waltl—56131192LAug 10 · 11:30M. Danzer1.081117113K. Waltl7.0051510LAug 10 · 09:58J. Willeke1.5312711113K. Waltl2.381011631WAug 10 · 09:00S. Amann2.3810111391K. Waltl1.5312715113WAug 10 · 06:30J. Grauer—812111172K. Waltl—1110813113
M. Ozdemir10
WAug 11 · 08:00J. Grauer1.279950M. Ozdemir3.251111113WAug 11 · 07:30J. Grauer1.309950M. Ozdemir3.401111113LAug 10 · 13:30M. Danzer1.021111113M. Ozdemir10.504680LAug 10 · 12:00S. Amann1.281111113M. Ozdemir3.506680LAug 10 · 08:30M. Stefanidis1.421111113M. Ozdemir2.703460LAug 10 · 07:00J. Willeke1.441111113M. Ozdemir2.631440LJan 3 · 08:00H. Debizhansky1.4011113113M. Ozdemir2.75661141LJan 2 · 18:30K. Zeimys1.071111113M. Ozdemir7.507750LJan 2 · 15:30D. Zech1.4011148113M. Ozdemir2.757121141LJan 2 · 14:00D. Keller1.83891411123M. Ozdemir1.831111125102
Upcoming Matches
K. Waltl1 of 5 neutral
M. Ozdemir
Nothing scheduled
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