TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12393302
Played Aug 10Finished
Johannes Willeke
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
111114114––––
Melih Ozdemir
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
0–7Last 7Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMelih Ozdemir to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJohannes Willeke above · Melih Ozdemir below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 42 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Melih Ozdemir at 54.0%
42 points played in total.
H2H Johannes Willeke 1–0 Melih Ozdemir Melih Ozdemir has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:10What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Willeke
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Willeke 1357 vs Ozdemir 1003
Willeke
Correct
both rated, 354 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Willeke 0% vs Ozdemir 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Willeke 20% vs Ozdemir 0%
Willeke
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Willeke -5 · Ozdemir -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Willeke) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ozdemir form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWilleke 1.44 / Ozdemir 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Willeke)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12393302
Willeke1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Ozdemir2.63
0%won 0 of 7 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest14%takes the first set · 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeWilleke1wins
AwayOzdemir0wins
Willeke leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricWillekeOzdemirW − OBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.09.0+24.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWillekeOzdemirBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 38 vs 2 / 729%28.6%11 / 38 vs 2 / 7Avg sets wonper match1.40.9per matchAvg pointsper match30.521.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WillekeWilleke 1.44/Ozdemir 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Willeke · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Willeke won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 10 · 07:00J. Willeke—1111113M. Ozdemir—1440
J. Willeke10
LAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:30M. Henninger1.301111113J. Willeke3.407760LAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 13:30J. Willeke3.758111171E. Huzsvar1.2211139113LAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113LAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 09:15M. Stefanidis—9101111113J. Willeke—11128252LAug 11 · 08:30J. Willeke6.70811531M. Danzer1.0511711113
M. Ozdemir10
WAug 11 · 08:00J. Grauer1.279950M. Ozdemir3.251111113WAug 11 · 07:30J. Grauer1.309950M. Ozdemir3.401111113LAug 11 · 07:00K. Waltl1.171112113M. Ozdemir4.5061050LAug 10 · 13:30M. Danzer1.021111113M. Ozdemir10.504680LAug 10 · 12:00S. Amann1.281111113M. Ozdemir3.506680LAug 10 · 08:30M. Stefanidis1.421111113M. Ozdemir2.703460LJan 3 · 08:00H. Debizhansky1.4011113113M. Ozdemir2.75661141LJan 2 · 18:30K. Zeimys1.071111113M. Ozdemir7.507750LJan 2 · 15:30D. Zech1.4011148113M. Ozdemir2.757121141LJan 2 · 14:00D. Keller1.83891411123M. Ozdemir1.831111125102
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