TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13034070
Played Aug 31Finished
Karl Zimmermann
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113116511211811
Kirill Fadeev
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:02 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeKarl Zimmermann to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKarl Zimmermann above · Kirill Fadeev below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 79 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Karl Zimmermann at 60.7%
79 points played in total.
H2H Karl Zimmermann 2–1 Kirill Fadeev Kirill Fadeev has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:02What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Fadeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zimmermann 1655 vs Fadeev 1674
Fadeev
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zimmermann 80% vs Fadeev 40%
Zimmermann
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zimmermann 90% vs Fadeev 50%
Zimmermann
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zimmermann +4 · Fadeev +2
Zimmermann
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Fadeev) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fadeev form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZimmermann 2.63 / Fadeev 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Fadeev)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13034070
Zimmermann2.63
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Fadeev1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeZimmermann2wins
AwayFadeev1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderZimmermann leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zimmermann2Fadeev1n = 3Zimmermann took 2 of 3
S2Zimmermann3Fadeev0n = 3Zimmermann took 3 of 3
S3Zimmermann2Fadeev1n = 3Zimmermann took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricZimmermannFadeevZ − FBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.731.7+6.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZimmermannFadeevBasisWin rate · lifetime26 / 44 vs 101 / 15059.1%67.3%26 / 44 vs 101 / 150Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevZimmermann 2.63/Fadeev 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann—11115282K. Fadeev—361111113
WAug 7 · 09:44K. Zimmermann—1111113K. Fadeev—4930
WAug 7 · 08:00K. Zimmermann—81113113K. Fadeev—1181171
K. Zimmermann10
LSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 08:30S. Almeida—119111172K. Zimmermann—131199113LAug 31 · 17:00A. Limonov1.3011119113K. Zimmermann3.40691151WAug 31 · 13:00K. Zimmermann—11118113M. Stefanidis—661161WAug 31 · 11:30S. Amann8.007860K. Zimmermann1.061111113WAug 31 · 09:30M. Gremillion3.75441151K. Zimmermann1.2511115113WAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113LAug 7 · 11:00A. Mino1.08117611113K. Zimmermann5.4061111622WAug 7 · 09:44K. Zimmermann4.331111113K. Fadeev1.204930
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 13:30S. Amann8.504740K. Fadeev1.05111183WAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion7.00512100K. Fadeev1.081114123LAug 31 · 07:00S. Almeida2.17111510143K. Fadeev1.6291312121LAug 7 · 09:44K. Zimmermann4.331111113K. Fadeev1.204930
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