TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #13090014
Played Sep 7Finished
Kirill Fadeev
Home
1.03
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114119811116––
Cosmo Schmitt
Away
10.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:12 and never touched — 90.7% is still 90.7%
Graded at full timeKirill Fadeev to win
90.7%
90.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKirill Fadeev above · Cosmo Schmitt below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Kirill Fadeev at 90.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Kirill Fadeev 3–0 Cosmo Schmitt Cosmo Schmitt has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:12What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.03 (91%)
Fadeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Fadeev
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fadeev 1694 vs Schmitt 1189
Fadeev
Correct
both rated, 505 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fadeev 60% vs Schmitt 40%
Fadeev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fadeev 60% vs Schmitt 20%
Fadeev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fadeev +2 · Schmitt +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% — Strong (leans Fadeev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schmitt form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (10%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFadeev 1.03 / Schmitt 10.00
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Fadeev)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #13090014
Fadeev1.03
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
Schmitt10.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeFadeev3wins
AwaySchmitt0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderFadeev leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fadeev2Schmitt1n = 3Fadeev took 2 of 3
S2Fadeev2Schmitt1n = 3Fadeev took 2 of 3
S3Fadeev3Schmitt0n = 3Fadeev took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricFadeevSchmittF − SBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.726.0+10.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFadeevSchmittBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 145 vs 8 / 5166.2%15.7%96 / 145 vs 8 / 51Avg sets wonper match2.31.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.230.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevFadeev 1.03/Schmitt 10.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
90.7%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 6 · 12:00K. Fadeev—1111113C. Schmitt—1860
WFeb 16 · 10:00K. Fadeev—471111113C. Schmitt—11119912
WDec 22 · 17:30K. Fadeev—1111113C. Schmitt—9850
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Amann8.504740K. Fadeev1.05111183WAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion7.00512100K. Fadeev1.081114123LAug 31 · 07:00S. Almeida2.17111510143K. Fadeev1.6291312121LAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191
C. Schmitt10
LSep 7 · 11:00R. Turrini1.011211113C. Schmitt13.0010760WSep 7 · 06:30M. Stefanidis—111081172C. Schmitt—912103113LJul 7 · 07:30D. Rinderer1.06111011113C. Schmitt8.00712561LJul 6 · 17:30C. Schmitt—571361T. Saltzer—111111113LJul 6 · 16:00L. Kraus1.2015119113C. Schmitt4.331391171WJul 6 · 14:00S. Carrillo1.258850C. Schmitt3.751111113LJul 6 · 12:00C. Schmitt10.501860K. Fadeev1.021111113LJul 6 · 09:30C. Schmitt10.5011196872E. Mendes1.028171111113LJul 6 · 08:00C. Schmitt4.33115791S. Happek1.2061111113LJun 2 · 07:00J. Shim1.221111113C. Schmitt4.003670
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