TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12305200
Played Jul 27Finished
Kai Moosmann
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91111712106111214
Michael Fuchs
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichael Fuchs to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKai Moosmann above · Michael Fuchs below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 103 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Michael Fuchs at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:58What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Fuchs
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Moosmann 1295 vs Fuchs 1416
Fuchs
Correct
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moosmann 40% vs Fuchs 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moosmann 20% vs Fuchs 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moosmann -3 · Fuchs -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Fuchs) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fuchs form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoosmann 2.20 / Fuchs 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Fuchs)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12305200
Moosmann2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Fuchs1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoosmannFuchsBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 42 vs 7 / 2326.2%30.4%11 / 42 vs 7 / 23Avg sets wonper match1.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match29.735.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FuchsMoosmann 2.20/Fuchs 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Fuchs · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fuchs won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
K. Moosmann10
WJul 28 · 06:30S. Happek1.201011101192K. Moosmann4.33125122113LJul 27 · 16:30N. Kizakisz—71111113K. Moosmann—115491LJul 27 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.52591111113K. Moosmann2.2711118582LJul 27 · 15:00K. Zimmermann1.20591111113K. Moosmann4.3311118582LJul 27 · 13:30K. Moosmann8.001311451K. Fadeev1.0615911113LJul 27 · 11:30K. Moosmann7.50631151O. Kosolosky1.0711117113LJul 27 · 08:00J. Loffler1.32111211113K. Moosmann3.00514571LDec 19 · 09:30R. Turrini1.021112113K. Moosmann11.0091080LDec 18 · 16:00M. Scharrer1.251111113K. Moosmann3.757570WDec 18 · 14:00K. Moosmann1.131111113J. Grauer5.505580
M. Fuchs10
LJul 28 · 10:35M. Fuchs1.7037100K. Zimmermann2.001111123LJul 28 · 09:15O. Kosolosky—3M. Fuchs—0LJul 28 · 07:00K. Fadeev1.111191011113M. Fuchs6.0051112842LJul 27 · 17:30J. Loffler1.22111111113M. Fuchs3.75571381WJul 27 · 14:30N. Kizakisz—5450M. Fuchs—1111113LJul 27 · 13:00O. Kosolosky1.07111110113M. Fuchs7.50261261WJul 27 · 11:00S. Happek2.25681141M. Fuchs1.5711118113LJul 27 · 06:30K. Zimmermann2.001212113M. Fuchs1.73101020LJul 27 · 06:30K. Zimmermann1.961212113M. Fuchs1.70101020LJul 21 · 06:30F. Bluhm1.041111113M. Fuchs9.007630
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