TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12305187
Played Jul 28Finished
Kirill Fadeev
Home
1.11
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1159111012118114
Michael Fuchs
Away
6.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:56 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMichael Fuchs to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKirill Fadeev above · Michael Fuchs below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 92 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Michael Fuchs at 54.9%
92 points played in total.
H2H Kirill Fadeev 2–0 Michael Fuchs Michael Fuchs has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:56What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Fadeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Fadeev 1748 vs Fuchs 1430
Fadeev
Correct
both rated, 318 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fadeev 40% vs Fuchs 60%
Fuchs
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fadeev 30% vs Fuchs 50%
Fuchs
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fadeev -1 · Fuchs -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Fadeev) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fuchs form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (17%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFadeev 1.11 / Fuchs 6.00
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Fadeev)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12305187
Fadeev1.11
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Fuchs6.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeFadeev2wins
AwayFuchs0wins
2 of 2 to a deciderFadeev leads 2–0, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home2
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricFadeevFuchsFadeev − FuchsBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match51.039.5+11.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFadeevFuchsBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 146 vs 8 / 2369.2%34.8%101 / 146 vs 8 / 23Avg sets wonper match2.41.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.433.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevFadeev 1.11/Fuchs 6.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.4%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 28 · 07:00K. Fadeev—1191011113M. Fuchs—51112842
WJun 24 · 07:00K. Fadeev—811911113M. Fuchs—11611652
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Amann8.504740K. Fadeev1.05111183WAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion7.00512100K. Fadeev1.081114123LAug 31 · 07:00S. Almeida2.17111510143K. Fadeev1.6291312121
M. Fuchs10
LJul 28 · 10:35M. Fuchs1.7037100K. Zimmermann2.001111123LJul 28 · 09:15O. Kosolosky—3M. Fuchs—0LJul 27 · 17:30J. Loffler1.22111111113M. Fuchs3.75571381WJul 27 · 14:30N. Kizakisz—5450M. Fuchs—1111113LJul 27 · 13:00O. Kosolosky1.07111110113M. Fuchs7.50261261WJul 27 · 11:00S. Happek2.25681141M. Fuchs1.5711118113WJul 27 · 10:00K. Moosmann2.20911126122M. Fuchs1.611171011143LJul 27 · 06:30K. Zimmermann2.001212113M. Fuchs1.73101020LJul 27 · 06:30K. Zimmermann1.961212113M. Fuchs1.70101020LJul 21 · 06:30F. Bluhm1.041111113M. Fuchs9.007630
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