TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12357988
Played Aug 6Finished
Sven Happek
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911411––––
Karl Zimmermann
Away
1.22
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:35 and never touched — 64.6% is still 64.6%
Graded at full timeKarl Zimmermann to win
64.6%
64.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSven Happek above · Karl Zimmermann below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 51 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Karl Zimmermann at 64.6%
51 points played in total.
H2H Sven Happek 0–1 Karl Zimmermann Sven Happek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Zimmermann
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Happek 1190 vs Zimmermann 1548
Zimmermann
Correct
both rated, 357 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Happek 0% vs Zimmermann 60%
Zimmermann
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Happek 20% vs Zimmermann 60%
Zimmermann
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Happek -5 · Zimmermann +1
Happek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Zimmermann) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zimmermann form (60%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHappek 4.00 / Zimmermann 1.22
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Zimmermann)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12357988
Happek4.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Zimmermann1.22
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHappek0wins
AwayZimmermann1wins
Zimmermann leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricHappekZimmermannH − ZBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match14.033.0−19.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHappekZimmermannBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 172 vs 16 / 3130.2%51.6%52 / 172 vs 16 / 31Avg sets wonper match1.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match32.133.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZimmermannHappek 4.00/Zimmermann 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Zimmermann · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zimmermann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJul 27 · 08:30S. Happek—6440K. Zimmermann—1111113
S. Happek10
LAug 7 · 07:30D. Zech1.831111113S. Happek1.839270WAug 6 · 17:30S. Happek1.803111110113T. Freund1.9111631272LAug 6 · 16:00A. Mino1.0481111113S. Happek9.00115431LAug 6 · 14:00K. Fadeev1.071111113S. Happek7.507970LAug 6 · 09:30S. Happek—771161T. Saltzer—11116113LAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113LJul 28 · 08:30S. Happek8.503570O. Kosolosky1.051111113LJul 28 · 06:30S. Happek1.201011101192K. Moosmann4.33125122113LJul 27 · 16:00S. Happek—611571J. Loffler—11811113WJul 27 · 12:30S. Happek1.871111113N. Kizakisz1.838420
K. Zimmermann10
LSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 10:25K. Zimmermann2.107630M. Henninger1.671111113WSep 1 · 08:30S. Almeida—119111172K. Zimmermann—131199113LAug 31 · 17:00A. Limonov1.3011119113K. Zimmermann3.40691151LAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:00K. Zimmermann—11118113M. Stefanidis—661161WAug 31 · 11:30S. Amann8.007860K. Zimmermann1.061111113WAug 31 · 09:30M. Gremillion3.75441151K. Zimmermann1.2511115113WAug 31 · 07:30M. Henninger1.80613181K. Zimmermann1.91111111113LAug 7 · 11:00A. Mino1.08117611113K. Zimmermann5.4061111622
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