TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12357994
Played Aug 6Finished
Sven Happek
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611811119811––
Luis Kraus
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLuis Kraus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSven Happek above · Luis Kraus below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Luis Kraus at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Sven Happek 3–3 Luis Kraus Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:36What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kraus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Happek 1199 vs Kraus 1487
Kraus
Correct
both rated, 288 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Happek 20% vs Kraus 40%
Kraus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Happek 20% vs Kraus 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Happek -3 · Kraus +1
Happek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kraus) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kraus form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHappek 2.50 / Kraus 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Kraus)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12357994
Happek2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Kraus1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeHappek3wins
AwayKraus3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHappek75%3 of 4
AwayKrausn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Happek4Kraus2n = 6Happek took 4 of 6
S2Happek1Kraus5n = 6Kraus took 5 of 6
S3Happek5Kraus1n = 6Happek took 5 of 6
S4Happek3Kraus1n = 4Happek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricHappekKrausH − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match36.335.7+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHappekKrausBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 170 vs 87 / 23430.6%37.2%52 / 170 vs 87 / 234Avg sets wonper match1.41.5per matchAvg pointsper match32.131.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrausHappek 2.50/Kraus 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Kraus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kraus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJul 7 · 06:30S. Happek—581111112L. Kraus—111177133
LJun 18 · 14:30S. Happek—8360L. Kraus—1111113
WMay 21 · 13:30S. Happek—1111113L. Kraus—9970
WApr 20 · 07:30S. Happek—11911113L. Kraus—711281
WDec 15 · 10:30S. Happek—11311113L. Kraus—611871
LOct 6 · 08:00S. Happek—111011752L. Kraus—612711113
S. Happek10
LAug 7 · 07:30D. Zech1.831111113S. Happek1.839270WAug 6 · 17:30S. Happek1.803111110113T. Freund1.9111631272LAug 6 · 16:00A. Mino1.0481111113S. Happek9.00115431LAug 6 · 14:00K. Fadeev1.071111113S. Happek7.507970LAug 6 · 12:00S. Happek4.005940K. Zimmermann1.221111113LAug 6 · 09:30S. Happek—771161T. Saltzer—11116113LJul 28 · 08:30S. Happek8.503570O. Kosolosky1.051111113LJul 28 · 06:30S. Happek1.201011101192K. Moosmann4.33125122113LJul 27 · 16:00S. Happek—611571J. Loffler—11811113WJul 27 · 12:30S. Happek1.871111113N. Kizakisz1.838420
L. Kraus10
WAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530LAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino1.171181011113L. Kraus4.5081112822LAug 6 · 16:30D. Zech3.00811411113L. Kraus1.3611911432LAug 6 · 15:00K. Fadeev1.14717115133L. Kraus5.001115711112LAug 6 · 13:30L. Kraus2.5087111152K. Zimmermann1.50111188113WAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272WAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730WAug 4 · 06:30J. Willeke2.63661141L. Kraus1.4411117113LAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991
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