TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12354413
Played Aug 4Finished
Johannes Willeke
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611611117411––
Luis Kraus
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:05 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeLuis Kraus to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJohannes Willeke above · Luis Kraus below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 67 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Luis Kraus at 61.8%
67 points played in total.
H2H Johannes Willeke 0–2 Luis Kraus Johannes Willeke has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:05What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kraus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Willeke 1341 vs Kraus 1487
Kraus
Correct
both rated, 146 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Willeke 20% vs Kraus 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Willeke 20% vs Kraus 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Willeke -4 · Kraus -2
Willeke
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kraus) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kraus form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWilleke 2.63 / Kraus 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Kraus)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12354413
Willeke2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Kraus1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeWilleke0wins
AwayKraus2wins
Kraus leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricWillekeKrausW − KBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match21.536.5−15.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWillekeKrausBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 30 vs 87 / 23423.3%37.2%7 / 30 vs 87 / 234Avg sets wonper match1.21.5per matchAvg pointsper match29.531.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrausWilleke 2.63/Kraus 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Kraus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kraus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 4 · 06:30J. Willeke—661141L. Kraus—11117113
LAug 26 · 08:00J. Willeke—5740L. Kraus—1111113
J. Willeke10
LAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:30M. Henninger1.301111113J. Willeke3.407760LAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 13:30J. Willeke3.758111171E. Huzsvar1.2211139113LAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113LAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 09:15M. Stefanidis—9101111113J. Willeke—11128252LAug 11 · 08:30J. Willeke6.70811531M. Danzer1.0511711113
L. Kraus10
WAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530LAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino1.171181011113L. Kraus4.5081112822LAug 6 · 16:30D. Zech3.00811411113L. Kraus1.3611911432LAug 6 · 15:00K. Fadeev1.14717115133L. Kraus5.001115711112LAug 6 · 13:30L. Kraus2.5087111152K. Zimmermann1.50111188113WAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272WAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730WAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113LAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991
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