TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12357982
Played Aug 6Finished
Damian Zech
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811119411114113
Luis Kraus
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDamian Zech to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDamian Zech above · Luis Kraus below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 83 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Damian Zech at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Damian Zech 3–6 Luis Kraus Damian Zech has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:35What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kraus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Kraus
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zech 1373 vs Kraus 1483
Kraus
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zech 0% vs Kraus 60%
Kraus
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zech 30% vs Kraus 50%
Kraus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zech -5 · Kraus -2
Zech
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Kraus) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kraus form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZech 3.00 / Kraus 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Kraus)+4.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12357982
Zech3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kraus1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeZech3wins
AwayKraus6wins
1 of 9 to a deciderKraus leads 6–3, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZech50%2 of 4
AwayKraus80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zech4Kraus5n = 9Kraus took 5 of 9
S2Zech3Kraus6n = 9Kraus took 6 of 9
S3Zech3Kraus6n = 9Kraus took 6 of 9
S4Zech1Kraus3n = 4Kraus took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricZechKrausZ − KBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match31.136.2−5.1per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZechKrausBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 221 vs 90 / 23927.2%37.7%60 / 221 vs 90 / 239Avg sets wonper match1.41.5per matchAvg pointsper match32.731.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrausZech 3.00/Kraus 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.8%
Kraus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zech won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJul 23 · 16:00D. Zech—1211113L. Kraus—10590
LJun 18 · 16:30D. Zech—14480L. Kraus—1611113
LMay 21 · 16:30D. Zech—1211531L. Kraus—101311113
LMay 7 · 10:30D. Zech—8660L. Kraus—1111113
LMar 5 · 14:00D. Zech—921161L. Kraus—11118113
WFeb 12 · 10:30D. Zech—1311711113L. Kraus—15911782
LNov 13 · 15:30D. Zech—119951L. Kraus—81111113
LJul 10 · 15:00D. Zech—5680L. Kraus—1111113
WJul 3 · 09:00D. Zech—1113113L. Kraus—61140
D. Zech10
LAug 20 · 16:30D. Zech8.501115681M. Danzer1.0571711113LAug 20 · 14:30D. Zech—711551N. Kizakisz—11911113LAug 20 · 12:30S. Almeida1.661111113D. Zech2.106970LAug 20 · 10:30E. Huzsvar1.5712101111113D. Zech2.2014129382LAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113WAug 20 · 07:30D. Zech1.5791111113A. Moreno2.25116791LAug 14 · 07:30D. Zech7.501511961L. Qiu1.0717411113WAug 13 · 16:30D. Zech—51111113M. Stefanidis—114871WAug 13 · 14:30D. Zech—1111113N. Kizakisz—2340LAug 13 · 12:30D. Cheaib1.01111110113D. Zech15.00971271
L. Kraus10
WAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530LAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino1.171181011113L. Kraus4.5081112822LAug 6 · 15:00K. Fadeev1.14717115133L. Kraus5.001115711112LAug 6 · 13:30L. Kraus2.5087111152K. Zimmermann1.50111188113WAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272WAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730WAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113WAug 4 · 06:30J. Willeke2.63661141L. Kraus1.4411117113LAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991
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