TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12359491
Played Aug 7Finished
Damian Zech
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119112117––––
Sven Happek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:05 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeDamian Zech to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDamian Zech above · Sven Happek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 51 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Damian Zech at 58.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Damian Zech 4–3 Sven Happek Sven Happek has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:05What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Happek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zech 1401 vs Happek 1191
Zech
Correct
both rated, 210 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zech 20% vs Happek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zech 40% vs Happek 20%
Zech
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zech +1 · Happek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zech) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Happek form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZech 1.83 / Happek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zech)+4.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12359491
Zech1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Happek1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeZech4wins
AwayHappek3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderZech leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZech75%3 of 4
AwayHappek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zech4Happek3n = 7Zech took 4 of 7
S2Zech4Happek3n = 7Zech took 4 of 7
S3Zech5Happek2n = 7Zech took 5 of 7
S4Zech5Happek1n = 6Zech took 5 of 6
S5Zech0Happek3n = 3Happek took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricZechHappekZ − HBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match42.038.4+3.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZechHappekBasisWin rate · lifetime57 / 214 vs 53 / 17726.6%29.9%57 / 214 vs 53 / 177Avg sets wonper match1.41.4per matchAvg pointsper match32.631.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZechZech 1.83/Happek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zech · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zech won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 7 · 07:30D. Zech—1111113S. Happek—9270
WJul 16 · 12:30D. Zech—11153113S. Happek—7131171
WJun 18 · 12:30D. Zech—11811133S. Happek—5116111
LMay 21 · 09:00D. Zech—411114102S. Happek—119611123
WMay 15 · 08:00D. Zech—91312113S. Happek—11111071
LAug 14 · 16:30D. Zech—95111162S. Happek—111136113
LJul 31 · 10:30D. Zech—151071182S. Happek—1312113113
D. Zech10
LAug 20 · 16:30D. Zech8.501115681M. Danzer1.0571711113LAug 20 · 14:30D. Zech—711551N. Kizakisz—11911113LAug 20 · 12:30S. Almeida1.661111113D. Zech2.106970LAug 20 · 10:30E. Huzsvar1.5712101111113D. Zech2.2014129382LAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113WAug 20 · 07:30D. Zech1.5791111113A. Moreno2.25116791LAug 14 · 07:30D. Zech7.501511961L. Qiu1.0717411113WAug 13 · 16:30D. Zech—51111113M. Stefanidis—114871WAug 13 · 14:30D. Zech—1111113N. Kizakisz—2340LAug 13 · 12:30D. Cheaib1.01111110113D. Zech15.00971271
S. Happek10
WAug 6 · 17:30S. Happek1.803111110113T. Freund1.9111631272LAug 6 · 16:00A. Mino1.0481111113S. Happek9.00115431LAug 6 · 14:00K. Fadeev1.071111113S. Happek7.507970LAug 6 · 12:00S. Happek4.005940K. Zimmermann1.221111113LAug 6 · 09:30S. Happek—771161T. Saltzer—11116113LAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113LJul 28 · 08:30S. Happek8.503570O. Kosolosky1.051111113LJul 28 · 06:30S. Happek1.201011101192K. Moosmann4.33125122113LJul 27 · 16:00S. Happek—611571J. Loffler—11811113WJul 27 · 12:30S. Happek1.871111113N. Kizakisz1.838420
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