TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12359494
Played Aug 6Finished
Damian Zech
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119113911211911
Timo Freund
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:05 and never touched — 63.4% is still 63.4%
Graded at full timeDamian Zech to win
63.4%
63.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDamian Zech above · Timo Freund below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 87 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Damian Zech at 63.4%
87 points played in total.
H2H Damian Zech 0–1 Timo Freund Damian Zech has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:05What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zech
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Zech 1373 vs Freund 1266
Zech
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zech 0% vs Freund 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zech 30% vs Freund 10%
Zech
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zech -5 · Freund -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Zech) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Freund form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZech 1.53 / Freund 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Zech)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12359494
Zech1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Freund2.38
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeZech0wins
AwayFreund1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderFreund leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricZechFreundZ − FBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match42.045.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZechFreundBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 221 vs 1 / 527.2%20%60 / 221 vs 1 / 5Avg sets wonper match1.40.8per matchAvg pointsper match32.729.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZechZech 1.53/Freund 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Zech · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Freund won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 6 · 14:30D. Zech—11119292T. Freund—931111113
D. Zech10
LAug 20 · 16:30D. Zech8.501115681M. Danzer1.0571711113LAug 20 · 14:30D. Zech—711551N. Kizakisz—11911113LAug 20 · 12:30S. Almeida1.661111113D. Zech2.106970LAug 20 · 10:30E. Huzsvar1.5712101111113D. Zech2.2014129382LAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113WAug 20 · 07:30D. Zech1.5791111113A. Moreno2.25116791LAug 14 · 07:30D. Zech7.501511961L. Qiu1.0717411113WAug 13 · 16:30D. Zech—51111113M. Stefanidis—114871WAug 13 · 14:30D. Zech—1111113N. Kizakisz—2340LAug 13 · 12:30D. Cheaib1.01111110113D. Zech15.00971271
T. Freund10
LAug 7 · 07:00K. Zimmermann1.1711118113T. Freund4.50551191LAug 6 · 17:30S. Happek1.803111110113T. Freund1.9111631272LAug 6 · 13:00T. Saltzer—1211113T. Freund—10890LAug 6 · 11:00A. Mino1.051111113T. Freund8.507880LAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730LAug 6 · 06:30K. Fadeev1.0314811113T. Freund10.001211671LFeb 21 · 08:30M. Pantoja1.3311119113T. Freund3.25651121WFeb 20 · 18:30T. Freund1.831111113E. Pillon1.834450LFeb 20 · 17:00X. Dixon1.2511812123T. Freund3.7531110101LFeb 20 · 15:00M. Echaveguren1.80126117113T. Freund1.91101191152
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