TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12359500
Played Aug 6Finished
Kirill Fadeev
Home
1.03
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412811116117––
Timo Freund
Away
10.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–6Last 7Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:06 and never touched — 62.6% is still 62.6%
Graded at full timeKirill Fadeev to win
62.6%
62.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKirill Fadeev above · Timo Freund below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 80 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Kirill Fadeev at 62.6%
80 points played in total.
H2H Kirill Fadeev 1–0 Timo Freund Timo Freund has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:06What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.03 (91%)
Fadeev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Fadeev 1695 vs Freund 1189
Fadeev
Correct
both rated, 506 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fadeev 60% vs Freund 20%
Fadeev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fadeev 40% vs Freund 14%
Fadeev
Correct
26pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fadeev -1 · Freund -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% — Strong (leans Fadeev) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fadeev form (60%) is below what odds imply (97%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFadeev 1.03 / Freund 10.00
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Fadeev)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12359500
Fadeev1.03
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Freund10.00
14%won 1 of 7 · last 10
oldest → newest
14%takes the first set · 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeFadeev1wins
AwayFreund0wins
Fadeev leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricFadeevFreundFadeev − FreundBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match44.036.0+8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFadeevFreundBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 150 vs 1 / 767.3%14.3%101 / 150 vs 1 / 7Avg sets wonper match2.41.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.131.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevFadeev 1.03/Freund 10.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
90.7%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 6 · 06:30K. Fadeev—14811113T. Freund—1211671
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 10:00K. Fadeev1.0311118113C. Schmitt10.00491161WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Amann8.504740K. Fadeev1.05111183WAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion7.00512100K. Fadeev1.081114123LAug 31 · 07:00S. Almeida2.17111510143K. Fadeev1.6291312121
T. Freund10
LAug 7 · 07:00K. Zimmermann1.1711118113T. Freund4.50551191LAug 6 · 17:30S. Happek1.803111110113T. Freund1.9111631272WAug 6 · 14:30D. Zech1.5311119292T. Freund2.38931111113LAug 6 · 13:00T. Saltzer—1211113T. Freund—10890LAug 6 · 11:00A. Mino1.051111113T. Freund8.507880LAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730LFeb 21 · 08:30M. Pantoja1.3311119113T. Freund3.25651121WFeb 20 · 18:30T. Freund1.831111113E. Pillon1.834450LFeb 20 · 17:00X. Dixon1.2511812123T. Freund3.7531110101LFeb 20 · 15:00M. Echaveguren1.80126117113T. Freund1.91101191152
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