TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12359499
Played Aug 6Finished
Damian Zech
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117911118811911
Tobias Saltzer
Away
3.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:06 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeTobias Saltzer to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
117911118811911
H2H Damian Zech 2–3 Tobias Saltzer Damian Zech has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:06What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (71%)
Zech
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zech 1401 vs Saltzer 1547
Saltzer
Correct
both rated, 146 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zech 60% vs Saltzer 80%
Saltzer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zech 50% vs Saltzer 80%
Saltzer
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zech -1 · Saltzer +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Zech) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Saltzer form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZech 1.30 / Saltzer 3.20
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Zech)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #12359499
Zech1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Saltzer3.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeZech2wins
AwaySaltzer3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderSaltzer leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZech66.7%2 of 3
AwaySaltzern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zech3Saltzer2n = 5Zech took 3 of 5
S2Zech2Saltzer3n = 5Saltzer took 3 of 5
S3Zech3Saltzer2n = 5Zech took 3 of 5
S4Zech0Saltzer3n = 3Saltzer took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricZechSaltzerZ − SBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match37.238.2−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZechSaltzerBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 217 vs 42 / 8827.2%47.7%59 / 217 vs 42 / 88Avg sets wonper match1.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match32.634.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZechZech 1.30/Saltzer 3.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.1%
Zech · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Saltzer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 6 · 07:30D. Zech—11911892T. Saltzer—711811113
WFeb 26 · 08:30D. Zech—1112113T. Saltzer—71030
LSep 11 · 07:30D. Zech—7870T. Saltzer—1111113
WAug 14 · 12:30D. Zech—1213117113T. Saltzer—101591152
LFeb 13 · 18:00D. Zech—811631T. Saltzer—11711113
D. Zech10
LAug 20 · 16:30D. Zech8.501115681M. Danzer1.0571711113LAug 20 · 14:30D. Zech—711551N. Kizakisz—11911113LAug 20 · 12:30S. Almeida1.661111113D. Zech2.106970LAug 20 · 10:30E. Huzsvar1.5712101111113D. Zech2.2014129382LAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113WAug 20 · 07:30D. Zech1.5791111113A. Moreno2.25116791LAug 14 · 07:30D. Zech7.501511961L. Qiu1.0717411113WAug 13 · 16:30D. Zech—51111113M. Stefanidis—114871WAug 13 · 14:30D. Zech—1111113N. Kizakisz—2340LAug 13 · 12:30D. Cheaib1.01111110113D. Zech15.00971271
T. Saltzer10
LAug 7 · 08:30A. Mino1.3711115113T. Saltzer2.85171181LAug 6 · 17:00K. Fadeev—1211113T. Saltzer—10720LAug 6 · 15:30T. Saltzer—9660K. Zimmermann—1111113WAug 6 · 13:00T. Saltzer—1211113T. Freund—10890LAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272WAug 6 · 09:30S. Happek—771161T. Saltzer—11116113WJul 7 · 10:40K. Fadeev—115651T. Saltzer—91111113LJul 7 · 09:45T. Saltzer3.855116101E. Mendes1.2011711123WJul 7 · 07:00K. Fadeev1.14112931T. Saltzer4.7091111113WJul 6 · 17:30C. Schmitt—571361T. Saltzer—111111113
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