TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12354353
Played Aug 3Finished
Makoto Nogami
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012114811119119
Marcel Neumaier
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:35 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeMarcel Neumaier to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMakoto Nogami above · Marcel Neumaier below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Marcel Neumaier at 61.2%
96 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:35What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Neumaier
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Nogami 1422 vs Neumaier 1584
Neumaier
Wrong
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nogami 40% vs Neumaier 80%
Neumaier
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nogami 30% vs Neumaier 60%
Neumaier
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nogami +1 · Neumaier -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Neumaier) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neumaier form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNogami 1.83 / Neumaier 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Neumaier)+4.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12354353
Nogami1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Neumaier1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricNogamiNeumaierBasisWin rate · lifetime10 / 40 vs 49 / 9225%53.3%10 / 40 vs 49 / 92Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match31.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeumaierNogami 1.83/Neumaier 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Neumaier · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nogami won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Nogami10
LAug 4 · 10:50K. Zimmermann1.0571111113M. Nogami8.50116931LAug 4 · 10:30K. Zimmermann—71111113M. Nogami—116931LAug 4 · 09:44M. Nogami1.83115111172M. Neumaier1.83711813113WAug 4 · 07:30M. Nogami7.2581111113J. Loffler1.05116771WAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991WAug 3 · 12:30J. Willeke3.256580M. Nogami1.331111113LAug 3 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.6711119113M. Nogami2.10841121WAug 3 · 09:00M. Nogami1.131111123L. Hubner5.5033100LAug 3 · 07:30M. Nogami5.5076111272A. Mino1.131111910113LJun 26 · 07:30M. Nogami—11101131M. Stefanidis—81213113
M. Neumaier10
LAug 14 · 10:30M. Stefanidis—1111113M. Neumaier—9880LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 08:00O. Kosolosky1.1791111113M. Neumaier4.50114671WAug 14 · 07:00M. Neumaier1.091111113N. Kizakisz5.803120WAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:30M. Stefanidis—119611113M. Neumaier—61111782WAug 13 · 12:00L. Qiu1.20117981M. Neumaier4.3371111113WAug 13 · 09:00D. Zech4.331177101M. Neumaier1.2081111123WAug 4 · 09:44M. Nogami1.83115111172M. Neumaier1.83711813113
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