TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12351677
Played Aug 3Finished
Makoto Nogami
Home
5.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7116111191210711
Alberto Mino
Away
1.13
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:05 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeAlberto Mino to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMakoto Nogami above · Alberto Mino below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 95 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Alberto Mino at 79.4%
95 points played in total.
H2H Makoto Nogami 0–1 Alberto Mino Makoto Nogami has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Mino
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Nogami 1455 vs Mino 1823
Mino
Correct
both rated, 369 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nogami 20% vs Mino 40%
Mino
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nogami 20% vs Mino 60%
Mino
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nogami -1 · Mino +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Mino) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mino form (40%) is below what odds imply (89%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNogami 5.50 / Mino 1.13
Signal prob.17% / 83%
Edge (Mino)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12351677
Nogami5.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Mino1.13
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNogami0wins
AwayMino1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderMino leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricNogamiMinoN − MBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match43.052.0−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNogamiMinoBasisWin rate · lifetime13 / 45 vs 13 / 1828.9%72.2%13 / 45 vs 13 / 18Avg sets wonper match1.42.5per matchAvg pointsper match32.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MinoNogami 5.50/Mino 1.13
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83%
Mino · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mino won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 3 · 07:30M. Nogami—76111272A. Mino—1111910113
M. Nogami10
LAug 4 · 10:50K. Zimmermann1.0571111113M. Nogami8.50116931LAug 4 · 10:30K. Zimmermann—71111113M. Nogami—116931LAug 4 · 09:44M. Nogami1.83115111172M. Neumaier1.83711813113WAug 4 · 07:30M. Nogami7.2581111113J. Loffler1.05116771WAug 3 · 16:30M. Nogami1.61111111113L. Kraus2.20613991WAug 3 · 14:30M. Nogami1.831011811113M. Neumaier1.8312411992WAug 3 · 12:30J. Willeke3.256580M. Nogami1.331111113LAug 3 · 10:30K. Zimmermann1.6711119113M. Nogami2.10841121WAug 3 · 09:00M. Nogami1.131111123L. Hubner5.5033100LJun 26 · 07:30M. Nogami—11101131M. Stefanidis—81213113
A. Mino10
LSep 3 · 06:10A. Mino3.403790F. Bourrassaud1.301111113WSep 2 · 12:10A. Shulaybi4.33611111062A. Mino1.20117412113WSep 2 · 06:15D. Shi—6450A. Mino—1111113LAug 26 · 17:25A. Mino3.00114991R. Castro1.3681111113WAug 26 · 10:20P. Dziuba2.6311671192A. Mino1.44611119113WAug 25 · 09:45A. Mino2.201111711113J. Skalda1.5713411972LAug 24 · 14:00A. Mino1.364820Y. Yu3.001111113WAug 7 · 11:00A. Mino1.08117611113K. Zimmermann5.4061111622WAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530WAug 7 · 08:30A. Mino1.3711115113T. Saltzer2.85171181
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