TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12354416
Played Aug 3Finished
Luis Kraus
Home
1.06
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116114711115––
Lars Hubner
Away
8.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLuis Kraus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLuis Kraus above · Lars Hubner below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 66 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Luis Kraus at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Luis Kraus 1–0 Lars Hubner Lars Hubner has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:05What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.06 (88%)
Kraus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kraus 1509 vs Hubner 1118
Kraus
Correct
both rated, 391 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kraus 0% vs Hubner 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kraus 20% vs Hubner 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kraus -5 · Hubner -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Kraus) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hubner form (0%) is below what odds imply (13%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKraus 1.06 / Hubner 8.00
Signal prob.88% / 12%
Edge (Kraus)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12354416
Kraus1.06
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Hubner8.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKraus1wins
AwayHubner0wins
Kraus leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKrausHubnerK − HBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.015.0+18.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrausHubnerBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 230 vs 2 / 1137%18.2%85 / 230 vs 2 / 11Avg sets wonper match1.50.7per matchAvg pointsper match31.225.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrausKraus 1.06/Hubner 8.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.3%
Kraus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kraus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJul 23 · 08:28L. Kraus—1111113L. Hubner—6270
L. Kraus10
WAug 7 · 10:30L. Kraus6.5011119113K. Fadeev1.10891191LAug 7 · 09:16A. Mino1.201111113L. Kraus4.008530LAug 7 · 06:30A. Mino1.171181011113L. Kraus4.5081112822LAug 6 · 16:30D. Zech3.00811411113L. Kraus1.3611911432LAug 6 · 15:00K. Fadeev1.14717115133L. Kraus5.001115711112LAug 6 · 13:30L. Kraus2.5087111152K. Zimmermann1.50111188113WAug 6 · 11:30L. Kraus2.151161110113T. Saltzer1.6351171272WAug 6 · 10:00L. Kraus1.251111113T. Freund3.758730WAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113WAug 4 · 06:30J. Willeke2.63661141L. Kraus1.4411117113
L. Hubner10
LAug 4 · 08:00K. Zimmermann1.041111113L. Hubner9.006130LAug 4 · 07:00L. Hubner9.004191451M. Neumaier1.04111716113LAug 3 · 15:30A. Mino1.011111113L. Hubner12.008760LAug 3 · 12:00J. Loffler—1111113L. Hubner—5860LAug 3 · 09:00M. Nogami1.131111123L. Hubner5.5033100LAug 3 · 07:00J. Willeke1.101111113L. Hubner6.509860LJul 24 · 08:00L. Hubner10.00671361D. Rinderer1.03111111113LJul 23 · 17:00L. Hubner9.0091140J. Loffler1.041113113WJul 23 · 15:30L. Hubner2.4011913133S. Amann1.5091111111WJul 23 · 14:59L. Hubner2.5011913133S. Amann1.5091111111
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