TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12351667
Played Aug 3Finished
Johannes Willeke
Home
1.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118116––––
Lars Hubner
Away
6.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–6Last 8Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:05 and never touched — 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeJohannes Willeke to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJohannes Willeke above · Lars Hubner below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Johannes Willeke at 70.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Johannes Willeke 1–0 Lars Hubner Lars Hubner has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:05What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Willeke
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Willeke 1341 vs Hubner 1087
Willeke
Correct
both rated, 254 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Willeke 20% vs Hubner 40%
Hubner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Willeke 10% vs Hubner 25%
Hubner
Wrong
15pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Willeke -2 · Hubner -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Willeke) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hubner form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (15%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWilleke 1.10 / Hubner 6.50
Signal prob.86% / 15%
Edge (Willeke)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12351667
Willeke1.10
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Hubner6.50
25%won 2 of 8 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest25%takes the first set · 2 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeWilleke1wins
AwayHubner0wins
Willeke leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricWillekeHubnerW − HBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.023.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWillekeHubnerBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 30 vs 2 / 1523.3%13.3%7 / 30 vs 2 / 15Avg sets wonper match1.20.7per matchAvg pointsper match29.525.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WillekeWilleke 1.10/Hubner 6.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.5%
Willeke · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Willeke won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 3 · 07:00J. Willeke—1111113L. Hubner—9860
J. Willeke10
LAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:30M. Henninger1.301111113J. Willeke3.407760LAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 13:30J. Willeke3.758111171E. Huzsvar1.2211139113LAug 24 · 11:30J. Willeke1.50111112982M. Kupfer2.50871411113LAug 24 · 10:00J. Willeke4.506650V. Yefimov1.171111113LAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 11 · 10:00K. Waltl2.50851161J. Willeke1.5011114113LAug 11 · 09:15M. Stefanidis—9101111113J. Willeke—11128252LAug 11 · 08:30J. Willeke6.70811531M. Danzer1.0511711113
L. Hubner10
LAug 4 · 08:00K. Zimmermann1.041111113L. Hubner9.006130LAug 4 · 07:00L. Hubner9.004191451M. Neumaier1.04111716113LAug 3 · 15:30A. Mino1.011111113L. Hubner12.008760LAug 3 · 13:30L. Kraus1.0611117113L. Hubner8.00641151LAug 3 · 12:00J. Loffler—1111113L. Hubner—5860LAug 3 · 09:00M. Nogami1.131111123L. Hubner5.5033100LJul 24 · 08:00L. Hubner10.00671361D. Rinderer1.03111111113LJul 23 · 17:00L. Hubner9.0091140J. Loffler1.041113113WJul 23 · 15:30L. Hubner2.4011913133S. Amann1.5091111111WJul 23 · 14:59L. Hubner2.5011913133S. Amann1.5091111111
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