TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12354349
Played Aug 4Finished
Lars Hubner
Home
9.00
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
41119171416511––
Marcel Neumaier
Away
1.04
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcel Neumaier to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLars Hubner above · Marcel Neumaier below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 19-17
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 97 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Marcel Neumaier at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Lars Hubner 0–1 Marcel Neumaier Lars Hubner has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.04 (90%)
Neumaier
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hubner 1087 vs Neumaier 1628
Neumaier
Correct
both rated, 541 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hubner 0% vs Neumaier 60%
Neumaier
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hubner 20% vs Neumaier 60%
Neumaier
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hubner -5 · Neumaier +1
Hubner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 90% — Strong (leans Neumaier) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neumaier form (60%) is below what odds imply (96%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHubner 9.00 / Neumaier 1.04
Signal prob.10% / 90%
Edge (Neumaier)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12354349
Hubner9.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Neumaier1.04
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHubner0wins
AwayNeumaier1wins
Neumaier leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHubnerNeumaierH − NBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match42.055.0−13.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHubnerNeumaierBasisWin rate · lifetime2 / 15 vs 56 / 10113.3%55.5%2 / 15 vs 56 / 101Avg sets wonper match0.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match25.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeumaierHubner 9.00/Neumaier 1.04
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89.6%
Neumaier · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Neumaier won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 4 · 07:00L. Hubner—4191451M. Neumaier—111716113
L. Hubner10
LAug 4 · 08:00K. Zimmermann1.041111113L. Hubner9.006130LAug 3 · 15:30A. Mino1.011111113L. Hubner12.008760LAug 3 · 13:30L. Kraus1.0611117113L. Hubner8.00641151LAug 3 · 12:00J. Loffler—1111113L. Hubner—5860LAug 3 · 09:00M. Nogami1.131111123L. Hubner5.5033100LAug 3 · 07:00J. Willeke1.101111113L. Hubner6.509860LJul 24 · 08:00L. Hubner10.00671361D. Rinderer1.03111111113LJul 23 · 17:00L. Hubner9.0091140J. Loffler1.041113113WJul 23 · 15:30L. Hubner2.4011913133S. Amann1.5091111111WJul 23 · 14:59L. Hubner2.5011913133S. Amann1.5091111111
M. Neumaier10
LAug 14 · 10:30M. Stefanidis—1111113M. Neumaier—9880LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.061111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 09:45D. Cheaib1.051111133M. Neumaier8.0096110LAug 14 · 08:00O. Kosolosky1.1791111113M. Neumaier4.50114671WAug 14 · 07:00M. Neumaier1.091111113N. Kizakisz5.803120WAug 13 · 15:30M. Kupfer4.50115581M. Neumaier1.1791111113LAug 13 · 13:30M. Stefanidis—119611113M. Neumaier—61111782WAug 13 · 12:00L. Qiu1.20117981M. Neumaier4.3371111113WAug 13 · 09:00D. Zech4.331177101M. Neumaier1.2081111123LAug 13 · 07:00D. Cheaib1.071111113M. Neumaier7.505920
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