TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12119707
Played Jun 29Finished
Sergio Carrillo
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
2116111113––––
Akito Itagaki
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingSergio Carrillo above · Akito Itagaki below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 54 set 3, 11-13
54 points played in total.
H2H Sergio Carrillo 0–1 Akito Itagaki Sergio Carrillo has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Carrillo)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Itagaki form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCarrillo 1.57 / Itagaki 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Carrillo)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12119707
Carrillo1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
Itagaki2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeCarrillo0wins
AwayItagaki1wins
Itagaki leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricCarrilloItagakiC − IBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match19.035.0−16.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCarrilloItagakiBasisWin rate · lifetime2 / 6 vs 49 / 9433.3%52.1%2 / 6 vs 49 / 94Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match27.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CarrilloCarrillo 1.57/Itagaki 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Carrillo · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Itagaki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJun 29 · 13:00S. Carrillo—26110A. Itagaki—1111133
S. Carrillo10
LJul 7 · 08:00S. Carrillo8.0081111582K. Fadeev1.06117511113WJul 6 · 17:00S. Carrillo6.5012111310123E. Mendes1.101491112102WJul 6 · 15:00S. Carrillo2.2071112113S. Happek1.611171091LJul 6 · 14:00S. Carrillo1.258850C. Schmitt3.751111113LJul 6 · 10:30S. Carrillo7.0091780D. Rinderer1.081119113LJul 6 · 08:30S. Carrillo2.63811691L. Kraus1.4411811113LJul 6 · 06:30S. Carrillo1.521131281T. Saltzer2.30131110113LJun 30 · 08:30O. Kosolosky1.081111113S. Carrillo7.006240LJun 29 · 17:00D. Rinderer1.071111113S. Carrillo7.509130LJun 29 · 15:30S. Carrillo8.0010530K. Fadeev1.061211113
A. Itagaki10
WJul 17 · 10:29A. Itagaki3.00131111113J. Loffler1.361113831LJul 17 · 09:38I. Bertrand1.011111113A. Itagaki12.004340LJul 17 · 08:00M. Danzer1.25811611113A. Itagaki3.7511911552WJul 17 · 07:00A. Itagaki1.16116711113M. Stefanidis4.4541111852WJul 16 · 15:30A. Moreno4.339540A. Itagaki1.201111113LJul 16 · 13:30J. Loffler1.501011117113A. Itagaki2.5012851192LJul 16 · 12:00I. Bertrand1.041111123A. Itagaki9.0062100WJul 16 · 09:00D. Zech4.33981381A. Itagaki1.20111111113WJul 16 · 07:00S. Happek2.7551131182A. Itagaki1.40118116113LJul 14 · 10:30A. Itagaki3.0596130O. Kosolosky1.331111153
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