TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12217967
Played Jul 17Finished
Matthias Danzer
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811119611115115
Akito Itagaki
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingMatthias Danzer above · Akito Itagaki below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 88 set 5, 11-5
88 points played in total.
H2H Matthias Danzer 2–0 Akito Itagaki Akito Itagaki has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Danzer)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Itagaki form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDanzer 1.25 / Itagaki 3.75
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Danzer)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12217967
Danzer1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Itagaki3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeDanzer2wins
AwayItagaki0wins
Danzer leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricDanzerItagakiD − IBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.531.0+10.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDanzerItagakiBasisWin rate · lifetime185 / 246 vs 58 / 10975.2%53.2%185 / 246 vs 58 / 109Avg sets wonper match2.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanzerDanzer 1.25/Itagaki 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75%
Danzer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Danzer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WApr 20 · 14:00M. Danzer—71111113A. Itagaki—118781
WSep 29 · 14:55M. Danzer—111110113A. Itagaki—671231
M. Danzer10
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161WAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger6.5011311692M. Danzer1.10911911113LAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113WAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860WAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860WAug 21 · 11:00M. Danzer1.251111163N. Kizakisz3.4066140
A. Itagaki10
WJul 17 · 10:29A. Itagaki3.00131111113J. Loffler1.361113831LJul 17 · 09:38I. Bertrand1.011111113A. Itagaki12.004340WJul 17 · 07:00A. Itagaki1.16116711113M. Stefanidis4.4541111852WJul 16 · 15:30A. Moreno4.339540A. Itagaki1.201111113LJul 16 · 13:30J. Loffler1.501011117113A. Itagaki2.5012851192LJul 16 · 12:00I. Bertrand1.041111123A. Itagaki9.0062100WJul 16 · 09:00D. Zech4.33981381A. Itagaki1.20111111113WJul 16 · 07:00S. Happek2.7551131182A. Itagaki1.40118116113LJul 14 · 10:30A. Itagaki3.0596130O. Kosolosky1.331111153LJul 14 · 09:13I. Bertrand1.051011118113A. Itagaki8.5012481122
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