TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12217753
Played Jul 16Finished
Alex Moreno
Home
4.33
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911511411––––
Akito Itagaki
Away
1.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingAlex Moreno above · Akito Itagaki below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 51 set 3, 4-11
51 points played in total.
H2H Alex Moreno 1–1 Akito Itagaki Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Itagaki)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Itagaki form (40%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoreno 4.33 / Itagaki 1.20
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Itagaki)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12217753
Moreno4.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Itagaki1.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMoreno1wins
AwayItagaki1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMorenoItagakiM − IBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match41.544.0−2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMorenoItagakiBasisWin rate · lifetime15 / 101 vs 56 / 10714.9%52.3%15 / 101 vs 56 / 107Avg sets wonper match0.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match28.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ItagakiMoreno 4.33/Itagaki 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.3%
Itagaki · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Itagaki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 14 · 07:30A. Moreno—11129113A. Itagaki—9101171
LFeb 2 · 17:30A. Moreno—13114572A. Itagaki—1171111113
A. Moreno10
LAug 25 · 08:30A. Moreno1.73511571M. Kupfer2.0011911113WAug 25 · 06:30A. Moreno1.611111113J. Willeke2.208940LAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113LAug 24 · 12:30A. Moreno6.00811961M. Henninger1.1111611113LAug 24 · 11:00A. Moreno7.507760V. Yefimov1.071111113WAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 07:00A. Moreno—861161E. Huzsvar—11115113LAug 21 · 08:15S. Almeida1.401111113A. Moreno2.767590LAug 20 · 16:30E. Huzsvar—11115113A. Moreno—581171LAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113
A. Itagaki10
WJul 17 · 10:29A. Itagaki3.00131111113J. Loffler1.361113831LJul 17 · 09:38I. Bertrand1.011111113A. Itagaki12.004340LJul 17 · 08:00M. Danzer1.25811611113A. Itagaki3.7511911552WJul 17 · 07:00A. Itagaki1.16116711113M. Stefanidis4.4541111852LJul 16 · 13:30J. Loffler1.501011117113A. Itagaki2.5012851192LJul 16 · 12:00I. Bertrand1.041111123A. Itagaki9.0062100WJul 16 · 09:00D. Zech4.33981381A. Itagaki1.20111111113WJul 16 · 07:00S. Happek2.7551131182A. Itagaki1.40118116113LJul 14 · 10:30A. Itagaki3.0596130O. Kosolosky1.331111153LJul 14 · 09:13I. Bertrand1.051011118113A. Itagaki8.5012481122
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