TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12217970
Played Jul 16Finished
Sven Happek
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511118311116811
Akito Itagaki
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingSven Happek above · Akito Itagaki below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 85 set 5, 8-11
85 points played in total.
H2H Sven Happek 1–2 Akito Itagaki Sven Happek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Itagaki)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Itagaki form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHappek 2.75 / Itagaki 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Itagaki)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12217970
Happek2.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Itagaki1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHappek1wins
AwayItagaki2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderItagaki leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Happek2Itagaki1n = 3Happek took 2 of 3
S2Happek3Itagaki0n = 3Happek took 3 of 3
S3Happek0Itagaki3n = 3Itagaki took 3 of 3
S4Happek2Itagaki1n = 3Happek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHappekItagakiH − IBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match38.744.3−5.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHappekItagakiBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 162 vs 58 / 11030.9%52.7%50 / 162 vs 58 / 110Avg sets wonper match1.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match32.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ItagakiHappek 2.75/Itagaki 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Itagaki · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Itagaki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 16 · 07:00S. Happek—51131182A. Itagaki—118116113
WJun 8 · 14:00S. Happek—11118123A. Itagaki—8811101
LApr 20 · 10:30S. Happek—11116442A. Itagaki—881111113
S. Happek10
LAug 7 · 07:30D. Zech1.831111113S. Happek1.839270WAug 6 · 17:30S. Happek1.803111110113T. Freund1.9111631272LAug 6 · 16:00A. Mino1.0481111113S. Happek9.00115431LAug 6 · 14:00K. Fadeev1.071111113S. Happek7.507970LAug 6 · 12:00S. Happek4.005940K. Zimmermann1.221111113LAug 6 · 09:30S. Happek—771161T. Saltzer—11116113LAug 6 · 08:00S. Happek2.50681181L. Kraus1.5011119113LJul 28 · 08:30S. Happek8.503570O. Kosolosky1.051111113LJul 28 · 06:30S. Happek1.201011101192K. Moosmann4.33125122113LJul 27 · 16:00S. Happek—611571J. Loffler—11811113
A. Itagaki10
WJul 17 · 10:29A. Itagaki3.00131111113J. Loffler1.361113831LJul 17 · 09:38I. Bertrand1.011111113A. Itagaki12.004340LJul 17 · 08:00M. Danzer1.25811611113A. Itagaki3.7511911552WJul 17 · 07:00A. Itagaki1.16116711113M. Stefanidis4.4541111852WJul 16 · 15:30A. Moreno4.339540A. Itagaki1.201111113LJul 16 · 13:30J. Loffler1.501011117113A. Itagaki2.5012851192LJul 16 · 12:00I. Bertrand1.041111123A. Itagaki9.0062100WJul 16 · 09:00D. Zech4.33981381A. Itagaki1.20111111113LJul 14 · 10:30A. Itagaki3.0596130O. Kosolosky1.331111153LJul 14 · 09:13I. Bertrand1.051011118113A. Itagaki8.5012481122
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