TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12119709
Played Jun 29Finished
Daniel Rinderer
Home
1.07
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119111113––––
Sergio Carrillo
Away
7.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingDaniel Rinderer above · Sergio Carrillo below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 46 set 3, 11-3
46 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Rinderer 1–0 Sergio Carrillo Sergio Carrillo has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Rinderer)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Carrillo form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (13%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRinderer 1.07 / Carrillo 7.50
Signal prob.88% / 13%
Edge (Rinderer)-0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12119709
Rinderer1.07
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Carrillo7.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest22%takes the first set · 2 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeRinderer1wins
AwayCarrillo0wins
Rinderer leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricRindererCarrilloR − CBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.013.0+20.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRindererCarrilloBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 191 vs 2 / 669.1%33.3%132 / 191 vs 2 / 6Avg sets wonper match2.41.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.727.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RindererRinderer 1.07/Carrillo 7.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.5%
Rinderer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rinderer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJun 29 · 17:00D. Rinderer—1111113S. Carrillo—9130
D. Rinderer10
WAug 21 · 10:30D. Rinderer1.37111210113S. Almeida2.854101261LAug 21 · 09:10M. Danzer1.301112173D. Rinderer3.10610150WAug 21 · 07:50E. Huzsvar1.191114101142D. Rinderer4.40316128113LAug 21 · 07:00D. Rinderer1.1611129872N. Kizakisz4.454101111113WAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113LAug 20 · 13:30M. Danzer1.731111113D. Rinderer2.006890WAug 20 · 12:00L. Qiu3.406530D. Rinderer1.301111113WAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113LAug 20 · 07:00S. Almeida3.60811711123D. Rinderer1.25117115102WJul 24 · 11:15D. Rinderer1.201111113L. Kraus4.009680
S. Carrillo10
LJul 7 · 08:00S. Carrillo8.0081111582K. Fadeev1.06117511113WJul 6 · 17:00S. Carrillo6.5012111310123E. Mendes1.101491112102WJul 6 · 15:00S. Carrillo2.2071112113S. Happek1.611171091LJul 6 · 14:00S. Carrillo1.258850C. Schmitt3.751111113LJul 6 · 10:30S. Carrillo7.0091780D. Rinderer1.081119113LJul 6 · 08:30S. Carrillo2.63811691L. Kraus1.4411811113LJul 6 · 06:30S. Carrillo1.521131281T. Saltzer2.30131110113LJun 30 · 08:30O. Kosolosky1.081111113S. Carrillo7.006240LJun 29 · 15:30S. Carrillo8.0010530K. Fadeev1.061211113LJun 29 · 13:00S. Carrillo1.5726110A. Itagaki2.251111133
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