TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12169563
Played Jul 7Finished
Sergio Carrillo
Home
8.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811117115511811
Kirill Fadeev
Away
1.06
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingSergio Carrillo above · Kirill Fadeev below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 88 set 5, 8-11
88 points played in total.
H2H Sergio Carrillo 0–1 Kirill Fadeev Sergio Carrillo has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Fadeev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fadeev form (60%) is below what odds imply (94%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCarrillo 8.00 / Fadeev 1.06
Signal prob.12% / 88%
Edge (Fadeev)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12169563
Carrillo8.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
Fadeev1.06
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeCarrillo0wins
AwayFadeev1wins
Fadeev leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricCarrilloFadeevC − FBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match18.034.0−16.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCarrilloFadeevBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 13 vs 159 / 22030.8%72.3%4 / 13 vs 159 / 220Avg sets wonper match1.22.5per matchAvg pointsper match30.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FadeevCarrillo 8.00/Fadeev 1.06
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.3%
Fadeev · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fadeev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJun 29 · 15:30S. Carrillo—10530K. Fadeev—1211113
S. Carrillo10
WJul 6 · 17:00S. Carrillo6.5012111310123E. Mendes1.101491112102WJul 6 · 15:00S. Carrillo2.2071112113S. Happek1.611171091LJul 6 · 14:00S. Carrillo1.258850C. Schmitt3.751111113LJul 6 · 10:30S. Carrillo7.0091780D. Rinderer1.081119113LJul 6 · 08:30S. Carrillo2.63811691L. Kraus1.4411811113LJul 6 · 06:30S. Carrillo1.521131281T. Saltzer2.30131110113LJun 30 · 08:30O. Kosolosky1.081111113S. Carrillo7.006240LJun 29 · 17:00D. Rinderer1.071111113S. Carrillo7.509130LJun 29 · 15:30S. Carrillo8.0010530K. Fadeev1.061211113LJun 29 · 13:00S. Carrillo1.5726110A. Itagaki2.251111133
K. Fadeev10
WSep 7 · 08:00K. Waltl6.00114861K. Fadeev1.1191111113WSep 1 · 11:00K. Fadeev2.003121110113K. Zimmermann1.70111011272LSep 1 · 09:47A. Limonov1.40111111143K. Fadeev2.751355121LSep 1 · 08:00A. Limonov1.57111195113K. Fadeev2.2584111172WSep 1 · 07:00K. Fadeev—611511113M. Stefanidis—11711992WAug 31 · 15:30K. Zimmermann2.6311115282K. Fadeev1.44361111113WAug 31 · 13:30S. Amann8.504740K. Fadeev1.05111183WAug 31 · 12:10M. Gremillion7.00512100K. Fadeev1.081114123LAug 31 · 07:00S. Almeida2.17111510143K. Fadeev1.6291312121WJun 29 · 15:30S. Carrillo8.0010530K. Fadeev1.061211113
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