TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Martynenko vs Pavlo Melnichuk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214811911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Martynenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Martynenko above · Pavlo Melnichuk below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 65 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Oleh Martynenko at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Martynenko 2–3 Pavlo Melnichuk Oleh Martynenko has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4954.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Martynenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martynenko 877 vs Melnichuk 896
Melnichuk
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martynenko 80% vs Melnichuk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martynenko 50% vs Melnichuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martynenko +1 · Melnichuk +3
Melnichuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Martynenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnichuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartynenko 1.80 / Melnichuk 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Martynenko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223696
Martynenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 22) · back after a break
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite39% won 24 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it66% 19 of 29
Melnichuk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 32 days ago (Aug 30) · back after a break
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 27 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back18% 9 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMartynenko2wins
AwayMelnichuk3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderMelnichuk leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartynenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMelnichuk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martynenko2Melnichuk3n = 5Melnichuk took 3 of 5
S2Martynenko3Melnichuk2n = 5Martynenko took 3 of 5
S3Martynenko3Melnichuk2n = 5Martynenko took 3 of 5
S4Martynenko2Melnichuk1n = 3Martynenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMartynenkoMelnichukMartynenko − MelnichukBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match37.436.4+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartynenkoMelnichukBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 324 vs 102 / 18644.4%54.8%144 / 324 vs 102 / 186Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartynenkoMartynenko 1.80/Melnichuk 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Martynenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Melnichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 18 · 10:25O. Martynenko268990P. Melnichuk331111113
LAug 17 · 18:25O. Martynenko4391112382P. Melnichuk511181011113
LAug 15 · 04:25O. Martynenko4281141182P. Melnichuk47117117113
WJul 23 · 04:25O. Martynenko4311911123P. Melnichuk307112101
WJul 22 · 13:25O. Martynenko331111113P. Melnichuk219480
O. Martynenko10
WSep 22 · 10:55O. Martynenko1.7311512113Y. Shcherbak2.009111091LSep 22 · 08:55M. Senyk7.001011115113O. Martynenko1.0812621172WSep 22 · 07:55O. Martynenko1.44131310113B. Pyrtyk2.6311111291WSep 22 · 06:55R. Skoropad2.504740O. Martynenko1.501111113WSep 22 · 05:25O. Martynenko1.7311115113V. Sydorchuk2.00691141LAug 22 · 10:25O. Martynenko1.3351111792B. Pyrtyk3.25114711113LAug 22 · 08:55O. Martynenko1.7311117732A. Nikolenko2.00751111113LAug 22 · 07:25O. Martynenko1.4410970V. Sydorchuk2.631211113WAug 22 · 05:55O. Martynenko2.201111143Y. Shcherbak1.6188120LAug 22 · 04:25O. Martynenko3.757880V. Ivanytskyi1.251111113
P. Melnichuk10
WAug 30 · 10:55V. Sydorchuk2.2596131182P. Melnichuk1.571111118113WAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 08:25P. Chyzh1.3312681182P. Melnichuk3.251011119113LAug 30 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.17111011113P. Melnichuk4.50812861WAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113WAug 29 · 18:55V. Sydorchuk2.10118771P. Melnichuk1.6771111113LAug 29 · 17:25P. Melnichuk2.0010670O. Bolnyh1.73121183LAug 29 · 15:25P. Chyzh1.40101111113P. Melnichuk2.75129891LAug 29 · 13:25Y. Melnyk1.2261111113P. Melnichuk4.00114771LAug 29 · 12:25Y. Shcherbak1.5311611113P. Melnichuk2.38911171
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