TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Evgenii Bakin vs Valentyn Kurliuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Evgenii Bakin
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191012511911––
Valentyn Kurliuk
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEvgenii Bakin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingEvgenii Bakin above · Valentyn Kurliuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Evgenii Bakin at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Evgenii Bakin 1–3 Valentyn Kurliuk Evgenii Bakin has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:19What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Bakin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Kurliuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bakin 1221 vs Kurliuk 1299
Kurliuk
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bakin 40% vs Kurliuk 60%
Kurliuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bakin 30% vs Kurliuk 50%
Kurliuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bakin -1 · Kurliuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bakin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bakin form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBakin 1.80 / Kurliuk 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Bakin)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13180064
Bakin1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 21)
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite69% won 25 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Kurliuk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 17)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog16% won 7 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeBakin1wins
AwayKurliuk3wins
Kurliuk leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBakinn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKurliuk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bakin1Kurliuk3n = 4Kurliuk took 3 of 4
S2Bakin2Kurliuk2n = 4split evenly
S3Bakin1Kurliuk3n = 4Kurliuk took 3 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricBakinKurliukB − KBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match26.232.2−6.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBakinKurliukBasisWin rate · lifetime61 / 111 vs 146 / 28655%51.1%61 / 111 vs 146 / 286Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.035.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BakinBakin 1.80/Kurliuk 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Bakin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kurliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WMay 28 · 05:30E. Bakin331111113V. Kurliuk207760
LApr 13 · 17:36E. Bakin217680V. Kurliuk331111113
LApr 13 · 16:30E. Bakin351011771V. Kurliuk4312911113
LMar 14 · 14:00E. Bakin164750V. Kurliuk331111113
E. Bakin10
LSep 23 · 06:30M. Zavoloka1.8311127113E. Bakin1.838101171LSep 21 · 10:03E. Bakin2.2521381122Y. Zvolynskyi1.571111115113WSep 21 · 09:00E. Bakin1.25611117113A. Lysyi3.7511761162LSep 21 · 08:00I. Sorochan1.731111113E. Bakin2.007720LSep 21 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.617111411113E. Bakin2.2011816882WSep 21 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi3.0012671162E. Bakin1.361011116113LSep 14 · 10:38E. Bakin1.91311100O. Badanin1.801113123LSep 14 · 09:00E. Bakin1.30671171O. Shvydkyi3.4011114113LSep 14 · 08:00O. Badanin2.381111113E. Bakin1.538950WSep 14 · 07:00S. Zherykhin2.005510E. Bakin1.731111113
V. Kurliuk10
WSep 17 · 09:59M. Zavoloka2.10391181V. Kurliuk1.6711117113LSep 17 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.201311113V. Kurliuk1.6111480WSep 17 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.3011117113V. Matviichuk3.40741161LSep 17 · 06:30V. Kurliuk2.10511891V. Simchuk1.6711711113WSep 17 · 05:00V. Kurliuk2.251111113M. Zavoloka1.575870LSep 9 · 10:10V. Kurliuk3.50811612112I. Sorochan1.251131110133WSep 9 · 09:00S. Honcharenko1.91511481V. Kurliuk1.8011611113LSep 9 · 07:30I. Sorochan1.251111113V. Kurliuk3.759590LSep 9 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi2.6312711113V. Kurliuk1.441011931WSep 9 · 05:00M. Zavoloka1.8061111662V. Kurliuk1.91115911113
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