TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142653
Played Sep 17Finished
Valentyn Kurliuk
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511117811911––
Viacheslav Simchuk
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Simchuk to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Kurliuk above · Viacheslav Simchuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Viacheslav Simchuk at 56.6%
73 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Kurliuk 6–7 Viacheslav Simchuk Valentyn Kurliuk has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Simchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurliuk 1296 vs Simchuk 1373
Simchuk
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurliuk 40% vs Simchuk 80%
Simchuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurliuk 40% vs Simchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurliuk +1 · Simchuk +4
Simchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Simchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurliuk 2.10 / Simchuk 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Simchuk)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13142653
Kurliuk2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog15% won 6 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Simchuk1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 99 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it92% 71 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurliuk3wins
AwaySimchuk7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSimchuk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurliuk66.7%2 of 3
AwaySimchuk85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurliuk3Simchuk7n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S2Kurliuk7Simchuk3n = 10Kurliuk took 7 of 10
S3Kurliuk2Simchuk8n = 10Simchuk took 8 of 10
S4Kurliuk6Simchuk1n = 7Kurliuk took 6 of 7
S5Kurliuk0Simchuk4n = 4Simchuk took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurliukSimchukK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.341.5−2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurliukSimchukBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 291 vs 280 / 46350.5%60.5%147 / 291 vs 280 / 463Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimchukKurliuk 2.10/Simchuk 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Simchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Simchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 06:30V. Kurliuk33511891V. Simchuk4011711113
LAug 12 · 09:30V. Kurliuk50511715122V. Simchuk551161113143
LAug 5 · 09:00V. Kurliuk511015511102V. Simchuk551213117123
WJul 30 · 08:00V. Kurliuk4011117113V. Simchuk34771191
WJul 19 · 08:00V. Kurliuk4181111113V. Simchuk31115691
LJul 17 · 12:00V. Kurliuk5815101011122V. Simchuk581312127143
LJun 30 · 05:00V. Kurliuk4561181192V. Simchuk51119119113
LJun 19 · 09:30V. Kurliuk216780V. Simchuk331111113
LMay 12 · 10:34V. Kurliuk2031070V. Simchuk341112113
WMay 12 · 06:30V. Kurliuk341112113V. Simchuk2451090
V. Kurliuk10
WSep 17 · 05:00V. Kurliuk2.251111113M. Zavoloka1.575870LSep 9 · 10:10V. Kurliuk3.50811612112I. Sorochan1.251131110133WSep 9 · 09:00S. Honcharenko1.91511481V. Kurliuk1.8011611113LSep 9 · 07:30I. Sorochan1.251111113V. Kurliuk3.759590LSep 9 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi2.6312711113V. Kurliuk1.441011931WSep 9 · 05:00M. Zavoloka1.8061111662V. Kurliuk1.91115911113LSep 6 · 16:59V. Kurliuk1.251146111R. Sveshnykov3.7551111133LSep 6 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov3.75111138113V. Kurliuk1.2559111192LSep 6 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.28111232V. Kurliuk3.5021030WSep 6 · 13:00Y. Urezchenko5.503520V. Kurliuk1.13111133
V. Simchuk10
WSep 17 · 07:30V. Simchuk1.401111113M. Zavoloka2.756840WSep 17 · 05:30V. Simchuk1.361311113V. Matviichuk3.0011570WSep 16 · 10:29V. Simchuk1.441111113Y. Zvolynskyi2.637690WSep 16 · 09:00V. Simchuk1.7321111113S. Honcharenko2.00116681WSep 16 · 08:00O. Badanin4.33541151V. Simchuk1.2011116113LSep 16 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi3.2511611113V. Simchuk1.33911581LSep 16 · 05:30M. Zavoloka3.00111196123V. Simchuk1.36861111102WSep 11 · 08:30N. Priadko2.2551181442V. Simchuk1.57119111263LSep 11 · 07:30V. Simchuk1.67811561S. Honcharenko2.1011311113LSep 11 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi1.53129122113V. Simchuk2.381011101192
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