TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111383
Played Sep 11Finished
Viacheslav Simchuk
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811113511611––
Serhii Honcharenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:14 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Simchuk to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingViacheslav Simchuk above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 66 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Viacheslav Simchuk at 55.4%
66 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Simchuk 22–37 Serhii Honcharenko Viacheslav Simchuk has won 22 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:14What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Simchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-37 in 59
Honcharenko
Correct
gap of 15 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simchuk 1341 vs Honcharenko 1362
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simchuk 40% vs Honcharenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simchuk 20% vs Honcharenko 50%
Honcharenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simchuk -3 · Honcharenko +1
Simchuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Simchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimchuk 1.67 / Honcharenko 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Simchuk)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111383
Simchuk1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite73% won 104 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it98% 53 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it93% 74 of 80
Honcharenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 77 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimchuk6wins
AwayHoncharenko4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSimchuk leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimchuk100%6 of 6
AwayHoncharenko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simchuk6Honcharenko4n = 10Simchuk took 6 of 10
S2Simchuk4Honcharenko6n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S3Simchuk4Honcharenko6n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S4Simchuk4Honcharenko2n = 6Simchuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimchukHoncharenkoS − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.536.1+1.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimchukHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 458 vs 436 / 84060.5%51.9%277 / 458 vs 436 / 840Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimchukSimchuk 1.67/Honcharenko 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Simchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 17:30V. Simchuk—1111113S. Honcharenko—7980
WAug 23 · 12:00V. Simchuk—111012123S. Honcharenko—61210101
LAug 18 · 05:30V. Simchuk—5119111S. Honcharenko—11511133
LAug 5 · 05:30V. Simchuk—51450S. Honcharenko—1116113
WJul 30 · 10:11V. Simchuk—111188113S. Honcharenko—49111172
WJul 30 · 09:00V. Simchuk—11811113S. Honcharenko—611961
WJul 7 · 07:30V. Simchuk—111110113S. Honcharenko—971261
LJul 1 · 09:58V. Simchuk—91170S. Honcharenko—1113113
LJul 1 · 08:00V. Simchuk—79140S. Honcharenko—1111163
WJun 30 · 09:58V. Simchuk—16911113S. Honcharenko—1411961
V. Simchuk10
LSep 11 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi1.53129122113V. Simchuk2.381011101192LSep 11 · 05:30V. Simchuk2.63851171S. Sideltsev1.4411118113LSep 10 · 17:33V. Simchuk2.359111031M. Pohorilyi1.5211712113WSep 10 · 16:00Y. Zvolynskyi3.40612891V. Simchuk1.30111011113WSep 10 · 14:30R. Hryhoriev2.00661181V. Simchuk1.7311115113LSep 10 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi1.5312113123V. Simchuk2.3810911101LSep 10 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.00611611123V. Simchuk1.73119119102LSep 4 · 17:19V. Simchuk3.401186101O. Torianyk1.2571111123LSep 4 · 16:00D. Tsys1.571111113V. Simchuk2.258470LSep 4 · 14:30O. Torianyk1.301111113V. Simchuk3.406990
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 11 · 06:00N. Priadko1.4011580S. Honcharenko2.751311113LSep 11 · 05:00M. Pohorilyi1.221112113S. Honcharenko4.0051040LSep 9 · 10:33S. Honcharenko2.6381111782Y. Zvolynskyi1.44117311113LSep 9 · 09:00S. Honcharenko1.91511481V. Kurliuk1.8011611113WSep 9 · 08:00M. Zavoloka1.5041280S. Honcharenko2.501114113WSep 9 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.506480S. Honcharenko2.501111113WSep 9 · 05:30I. Sorochan2.38961251S. Honcharenko1.53111110113LSep 8 · 10:33M. Zavoloka1.5714711113S. Honcharenko2.251211491LSep 8 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.53116111062Y. Urezchenko2.38711512113WSep 8 · 08:30S. Honcharenko1.2511119113V. Hyriavyi3.75671191
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