TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111440
Played Sep 11Finished
Mykola Pohorilyi
Home
1.22
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151210114––––
Serhii Honcharenko
Away
4.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:35 and never touched — 80.2% is still 80.2%
Graded at full timeMykola Pohorilyi to win
80.2%
80.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykola Pohorilyi above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 53 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Mykola Pohorilyi at 80.2%
53 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Pohorilyi 32–22 Serhii Honcharenko Serhii Honcharenko has won 22 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:35What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Pohorilyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-22 in 54
Pohorilyi
Correct
gap of 10 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pohorilyi 1484 vs Honcharenko 1360
Pohorilyi
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pohorilyi 80% vs Honcharenko 60%
Pohorilyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pohorilyi 70% vs Honcharenko 50%
Pohorilyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pohorilyi +1 · Honcharenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Pohorilyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohorilyi 1.22 / Honcharenko 4.00
Signal prob.80% / 20%
Edge (Pohorilyi)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13111440
Pohorilyi1.22
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 127 of 184
Up 2–0, closes it93% 70 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it87% 102 of 117
Honcharenko4.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 77 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePohorilyi8wins
AwayHoncharenko2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPohorilyi leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePohorilyi100%7 of 7
AwayHoncharenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pohorilyi7Honcharenko3n = 10Pohorilyi took 7 of 10
S2Pohorilyi9Honcharenko1n = 10Pohorilyi took 9 of 10
S3Pohorilyi6Honcharenko4n = 10Pohorilyi took 6 of 10
S4Pohorilyi4Honcharenko0n = 4Pohorilyi took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPohorilyiHoncharenkoP − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.629.3+7.3per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohorilyiHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 621 vs 435 / 83857%51.9%354 / 621 vs 435 / 838Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PohorilyiPohorilyi 1.22/Honcharenko 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.2%
Pohorilyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pohorilyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi—81211113S. Honcharenko—1110881
WAug 10 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi—1111113S. Honcharenko—5750
WAug 5 · 09:58M. Pohorilyi—1311113S. Honcharenko—11970
WAug 5 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi—11119113S. Honcharenko—891141
LJul 28 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi—8460S. Honcharenko—1111113
WJul 20 · 06:00M. Pohorilyi—1111113S. Honcharenko—6950
WJun 26 · 09:30M. Pohorilyi—1111113S. Honcharenko—7690
WMay 8 · 05:00M. Pohorilyi—1111113S. Honcharenko—3990
LJan 30 · 07:30M. Pohorilyi—6111411112S. Honcharenko—116164133
WJan 5 · 10:00M. Pohorilyi—11119133S. Honcharenko—5711111
M. Pohorilyi10
WSep 10 · 17:33V. Simchuk2.359111031M. Pohorilyi1.5211712113LSep 10 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.366811111I. Dubinin3.0011118133WSep 10 · 15:30M. Pohorilyi1.441110511113R. Hryhoriev2.6321211882WSep 10 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi1.4411711113Y. Zvolynskyi2.63911731WSep 10 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi1.5312113123V. Simchuk2.3810911101LSep 5 · 10:31M. Pohorilyi4.05105100D. Tsys1.181211123WSep 5 · 08:30N. Priadko1.834370M. Pohorilyi1.831111113WSep 5 · 07:30M. Pohorilyi2.7511118113O. Torianyk1.40941141LSep 5 · 06:30D. Tsys1.221111113M. Pohorilyi4.006660WSep 5 · 05:30M. Pohorilyi1.571113113S. Sideltsev2.2591160
S. Honcharenko10
LSep 9 · 10:33S. Honcharenko2.6381111782Y. Zvolynskyi1.44117311113LSep 9 · 09:00S. Honcharenko1.91511481V. Kurliuk1.8011611113WSep 9 · 08:00M. Zavoloka1.5041280S. Honcharenko2.501114113WSep 9 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.506480S. Honcharenko2.501111113WSep 9 · 05:30I. Sorochan2.38961251S. Honcharenko1.53111110113LSep 8 · 10:33M. Zavoloka1.5714711113S. Honcharenko2.251211491LSep 8 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.53116111062Y. Urezchenko2.38711512113WSep 8 · 08:30S. Honcharenko1.2511119113V. Hyriavyi3.75671191WSep 8 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.531111113V. Matviichuk2.388780LSep 8 · 06:00S. Honcharenko1.739680M. Zavoloka2.001111113
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