TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105668
Played Sep 10Finished
Ihor Dubinin
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111196111191210
Viacheslav Simchuk
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:59 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Simchuk to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIhor Dubinin above · Viacheslav Simchuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 96 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Viacheslav Simchuk at 59.3%
96 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Dubinin 8–8 Viacheslav Simchuk Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 3–7Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:59What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Simchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dubinin 1374 vs Simchuk 1369
Dubinin
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dubinin 60% vs Simchuk 20%
Dubinin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dubinin 40% vs Simchuk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dubinin +1 · Simchuk -4
Simchuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Simchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDubinin 2.00 / Simchuk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Simchuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13105668
Dubinin2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 37 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back18% 12 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 40
Simchuk1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite72% won 103 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it96% 52 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it92% 72 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDubinin3wins
AwaySimchuk7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSimchuk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDubinin40%2 of 5
AwaySimchuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dubinin5Simchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Dubinin3Simchuk7n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S3Dubinin4Simchuk6n = 10Simchuk took 6 of 10
S4Dubinin3Simchuk2n = 5Dubinin took 3 of 5
S5Dubinin0Simchuk3n = 3Simchuk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricDubininSimchukD − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.638.2−4.6per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDubininSimchukBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 449 vs 275 / 45150.8%61%228 / 449 vs 275 / 451Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimchukDubinin 2.00/Simchuk 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Simchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dubinin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin—10350V. Simchuk—1211113
LAug 30 · 13:30I. Dubinin—111111942V. Simchuk—513811113
LAug 24 · 17:28I. Dubinin—11137492V. Simchuk—6111111113
WAug 24 · 12:00I. Dubinin—11811123V. Simchuk—6118101
LAug 17 · 13:30I. Dubinin—81070V. Simchuk—1112113
LAug 6 · 17:08I. Dubinin—7370V. Simchuk—1111113
LAug 6 · 16:00I. Dubinin—5970V. Simchuk—1111113
WJul 17 · 16:59I. Dubinin—1414123V. Simchuk—1212100
WJul 17 · 14:30I. Dubinin—61111113V. Simchuk—115791
LJun 25 · 17:33I. Dubinin—11391292V. Simchuk—6111110113
I. Dubinin10
WSep 7 · 17:08S. Sideltsev2.6310960I. Dubinin1.441211113LSep 7 · 16:30S. Honcharenko3.251151112113I. Dubinin1.3351161492WSep 7 · 15:00I. Dubinin1.8091411113I. Sorochan1.911112591LSep 7 · 13:30I. Dubinin1.83114891N. Priadko1.8381111113WSep 7 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.10114511113S. Sideltsev1.6791111682LSep 4 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi1.40119116113I. Dubinin2.7551151162LSep 4 · 15:00I. Dubinin2.6368100D. Tsys1.441111123LSep 4 · 13:30I. Dubinin3.406760O. Torianyk1.301111113LSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.1010350V. Simchuk1.671211113WSep 1 · 17:38N. Priadko1.80691181I. Dubinin1.9111118113
V. Simchuk10
LSep 4 · 17:19V. Simchuk3.401186101O. Torianyk1.2571111123LSep 4 · 16:00D. Tsys1.571111113V. Simchuk2.258470LSep 4 · 14:30O. Torianyk1.301111113V. Simchuk3.406990LSep 4 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi1.578111211113V. Simchuk2.25111310722WSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.1010350V. Simchuk1.671211113LAug 30 · 17:14S. Sideltsev1.101411103V. Simchuk6.5012780WAug 30 · 15:30I. Sorochan1.834980V. Simchuk1.831111113LAug 30 · 14:30V. Simchuk1.2865111192Y. Zvolynskyi3.50111178103WAug 30 · 13:30I. Dubinin2.20111111942V. Simchuk1.61513811113LAug 30 · 12:30V. Simchuk2.25591131S. Sideltsev1.5711115113
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