TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13106069
Played Sep 10Finished
Yurii Zvolynskyi
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111210811911––
Viacheslav Simchuk
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched — 74.7% is still 74.7%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Simchuk to win
74.7%
74.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Zvolynskyi above · Viacheslav Simchuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Viacheslav Simchuk at 74.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Zvolynskyi 38–84 Viacheslav Simchuk Yurii Zvolynskyi has won 38 of their 122 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:55What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Simchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-84 in 122
Simchuk
Correct
gap of 46 in 122, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zvolynskyi 1315 vs Simchuk 1353
Simchuk
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zvolynskyi 40% vs Simchuk 20%
Zvolynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zvolynskyi 50% vs Simchuk 30%
Zvolynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zvolynskyi +1 · Simchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Simchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZvolynskyi 3.40 / Simchuk 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Simchuk)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13106069
Zvolynskyi3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 39 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 55
Simchuk1.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite72% won 103 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it96% 52 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it92% 72 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZvolynskyi3wins
AwaySimchuk7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSimchuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZvolynskyi50%2 of 4
AwaySimchuk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zvolynskyi4Simchuk6n = 10Simchuk took 6 of 10
S2Zvolynskyi3Simchuk7n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S3Zvolynskyi3Simchuk7n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S4Zvolynskyi1Simchuk6n = 7Simchuk took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZvolynskyiSimchukZ − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.139.1−7.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZvolynskyiSimchukBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 582 vs 276 / 45452.4%60.8%305 / 582 vs 276 / 454Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimchukZvolynskyi 3.40/Simchuk 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.7%
Simchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Simchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 14:30Y. Zvolynskyi—111178103V. Simchuk—65111192
LAug 24 · 16:30Y. Zvolynskyi—5570V. Simchuk—1111113
LAug 23 · 15:00Y. Zvolynskyi—115961V. Simchuk—61111113
WAug 17 · 14:30Y. Zvolynskyi—111112113V. Simchuk—951481
LAug 11 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi—10950V. Simchuk—1211113
LAug 5 · 10:29Y. Zvolynskyi—76100V. Simchuk—1111123
LAug 5 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi—281251V. Simchuk—111110113
LJul 30 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi—117391V. Simchuk—71111113
LJul 17 · 16:00Y. Zvolynskyi—941151V. Simchuk—11119113
WJun 30 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi—311149113V. Simchuk—117121172
Y. Zvolynskyi10
WSep 10 · 15:00I. Dubinin1.33311661Y. Zvolynskyi3.2511911113LSep 10 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi1.4411711113Y. Zvolynskyi2.63911731LSep 10 · 12:30R. Hryhoriev1.3613911203Y. Zvolynskyi3.0011119181WSep 9 · 10:33S. Honcharenko2.6381111782Y. Zvolynskyi1.44117311113LSep 9 · 09:30Y. Zvolynskyi2.1071111872M. Zavoloka1.67113711113WSep 9 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.731111113I. Sorochan2.007950LSep 9 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.506480S. Honcharenko2.501111113WSep 9 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi2.6312711113V. Kurliuk1.441011931LSep 4 · 10:39Y. Zvolynskyi2.254370V. Kurliuk1.571111113WSep 4 · 09:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.081111113V. Khyzhnyak7.005970
V. Simchuk10
LSep 10 · 17:33V. Simchuk2.359111031M. Pohorilyi1.5211712113WSep 10 · 14:30R. Hryhoriev2.00661181V. Simchuk1.7311115113LSep 10 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi1.5312113123V. Simchuk2.3810911101LSep 10 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.00611611123V. Simchuk1.73119119102LSep 4 · 17:19V. Simchuk3.401186101O. Torianyk1.2571111123LSep 4 · 16:00D. Tsys1.571111113V. Simchuk2.258470LSep 4 · 14:30O. Torianyk1.301111113V. Simchuk3.406990LSep 4 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi1.578111211113V. Simchuk2.25111310722WSep 4 · 12:00I. Dubinin2.1010350V. Simchuk1.671211113LAug 30 · 17:14S. Sideltsev1.101411103V. Simchuk6.5012780
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