TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136844
Played Sep 16Finished
Oleksandr Badanin
Home
4.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511411116511––
Viacheslav Simchuk
Away
1.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 82.3% is still 82.3%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Simchuk to win
82.3%
82.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Badanin above · Viacheslav Simchuk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 64 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Viacheslav Simchuk at 82.3%
64 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Badanin 9–18 Viacheslav Simchuk Oleksandr Badanin has won 9 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Simchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-18 in 27
Simchuk
Correct
gap of 9 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Badanin 1129 vs Simchuk 1321
Simchuk
Correct
both rated, 192 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badanin 40% vs Simchuk 20%
Badanin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badanin 30% vs Simchuk 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Badanin -2 · Simchuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Simchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadanin 4.33 / Simchuk 1.20
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Simchuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13136844
Badanin4.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 16 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Simchuk1.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite72% won 101 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it98% 51 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it92% 72 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBadanin0wins
AwaySimchuk10wins
Simchuk leads 10–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBadanin0%0 of 3
AwaySimchuk100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Badanin3Simchuk7n = 10Simchuk took 7 of 10
S2Badanin0Simchuk10n = 10Simchuk took 10 of 10
S3Badanin2Simchuk8n = 10Simchuk took 8 of 10
S4Badanin0Simchuk5n = 5Simchuk took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricBadaninSimchukB − SBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match26.937.4−10.5per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBadaninSimchukBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 329 vs 275 / 45847.4%60%156 / 329 vs 275 / 458Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimchukBadanin 4.33/Simchuk 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.3%
Simchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Simchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 08:00O. Badanin25541151V. Simchuk3911116113
LApr 30 · 07:30O. Badanin229670V. Simchuk331111113
LApr 24 · 08:00O. Badanin34153791V. Simchuk46131111113
LApr 6 · 07:00O. Badanin36791191V. Simchuk3911116113
LApr 1 · 09:00O. Badanin196940V. Simchuk331111113
LMar 20 · 11:38O. Badanin331110751V. Simchuk3841211113
LMar 20 · 10:30O. Badanin391271191V. Simchuk45101113113
LMar 13 · 09:00O. Badanin199820V. Simchuk331111113
LMar 8 · 17:00O. Badanin1935110V. Simchuk351111133
LFeb 23 · 09:00O. Badanin238780V. Simchuk331111113
O. Badanin10
LSep 16 · 09:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.201111113O. Badanin4.334550LSep 16 · 06:30O. Badanin2.63511111132M. Zavoloka1.44119713113LSep 16 · 05:00O. Badanin1.5061111952S. Honcharenko2.50114511113WSep 14 · 10:38E. Bakin1.91311100O. Badanin1.801113123LSep 14 · 09:30S. Zherykhin2.63711112123O. Badanin1.44119711102WSep 14 · 08:00O. Badanin2.381111113E. Bakin1.538950LSep 14 · 06:30O. Badanin1.579470A. Lysyi2.251111113LSep 14 · 05:00O. Badanin1.5051191182O. Shvydkyi2.50115115113WSep 7 · 09:00O. Badanin1.3311131110113S. Zherykhin3.2561551292LSep 7 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.381111133O. Badanin1.5388110
V. Simchuk10
WSep 16 · 09:00V. Simchuk1.7321111113S. Honcharenko2.00116681LSep 16 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi3.2511611113V. Simchuk1.33911581LSep 16 · 05:30M. Zavoloka3.00111196123V. Simchuk1.36861111102WSep 11 · 08:30N. Priadko2.2551181442V. Simchuk1.57119111263LSep 11 · 07:30V. Simchuk1.67811561S. Honcharenko2.1011311113LSep 11 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi1.53129122113V. Simchuk2.381011101192LSep 11 · 05:30V. Simchuk2.63851171S. Sideltsev1.4411118113LSep 10 · 17:33V. Simchuk2.359111031M. Pohorilyi1.5211712113WSep 10 · 16:00Y. Zvolynskyi3.40612891V. Simchuk1.30111011113WSep 10 · 14:30R. Hryhoriev2.00661181V. Simchuk1.7311115113
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