TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13128857
Played Sep 14Finished
Evgenii Bakin
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
31111131012––––
Oleksandr Badanin
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingEvgenii Bakin above · Oleksandr Badanin below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 60 set 3, 10-12
60 points played in total.
H2H Evgenii Bakin 4–6 Oleksandr Badanin Evgenii Bakin has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Badanin beat Bakin 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Badanin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badanin form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBakin 1.91 / Badanin 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Badanin)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13128857
Bakin1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog21% won 3 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back13% 1 of 8
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Badanin1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 34 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBakin4wins
AwayBadanin6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBadanin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBakin50%3 of 6
AwayBadanin75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bakin6Badanin4n = 10Bakin took 6 of 10
S2Bakin4Badanin6n = 10Badanin took 6 of 10
S3Bakin4Badanin6n = 10Badanin took 6 of 10
S4Bakin1Badanin4n = 5Badanin took 4 of 5
S5Bakin2Badanin2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBakinBadaninBakin − BadaninBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.538.5−3.0per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBakinBadaninBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 110 vs 157 / 33057.3%47.6%63 / 110 vs 157 / 330Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.336.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BadaninBakin 1.91/Badanin 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Badanin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Badanin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 08:00E. Bakin228950O. Badanin331111113
WMay 29 · 08:30E. Bakin49971111113O. Badanin4311116962
WMar 22 · 11:48E. Bakin331111113O. Badanin249780
WMar 22 · 10:30E. Bakin551115810113O. Badanin51613111292
LJan 16 · 11:35E. Bakin3811711452O. Badanin48811811103
LJan 16 · 09:00E. Bakin401291271O. Badanin46101114113
LJan 5 · 11:00E. Bakin166460O. Badanin331111113
WJan 5 · 07:30E. Bakin341211113O. Badanin2110380
LAug 6 · 07:00E. Bakin28108100O. Badanin351211123
LAug 5 · 07:00E. Bakin4011118192O. Badanin51991111113
E. Bakin10
LSep 14 · 09:00E. Bakin1.30671171O. Shvydkyi3.4011114113LSep 14 · 08:00O. Badanin2.381111113E. Bakin1.538950WSep 14 · 07:00S. Zherykhin2.005510E. Bakin1.731111113LSep 14 · 05:30A. Lysyi5.00114311113E. Bakin1.1491111762WAug 2 · 10:08E. Bakin1.67117117113S. Honcharenko2.1091141182WAug 2 · 08:58E. Bakin1.80111168113O. Levytskyi1.9169111142LAug 2 · 07:58S. Honcharenko2.501111123E. Bakin1.5084100LAug 2 · 06:58R. Sveshnykov1.6111811113E. Bakin2.20511811LAug 2 · 05:29I. Sorochan2.1011812113E. Bakin1.679111041WJun 27 · 10:15E. Bakin1.301111113A. Lysyi3.404790
O. Badanin10
LSep 14 · 09:30S. Zherykhin2.63711112123O. Badanin1.44119711102WSep 14 · 08:00O. Badanin2.381111113E. Bakin1.538950LSep 14 · 06:30O. Badanin1.579470A. Lysyi2.251111113LSep 14 · 05:00O. Badanin1.5051191182O. Shvydkyi2.50115115113WSep 7 · 09:00O. Badanin1.3311131110113S. Zherykhin3.2561551292LSep 7 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.381111133O. Badanin1.5388110LSep 7 · 07:00V. Khyzhnyak3.7511111113O. Badanin1.25991181LSep 7 · 05:30A. Lysyi2.7511119113O. Badanin1.40991171WSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko2.209114101O. Badanin1.6111911123LSep 4 · 09:30O. Badanin3.7511791152V. Kurliuk1.25711118113
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