TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126362
Played Sep 14Finished
Evgenii Bakin
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611711114711––
Oleg Shvydkyi
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeEvgenii Bakin to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingEvgenii Bakin above · Oleg Shvydkyi below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 68 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Evgenii Bakin at 70.4%
68 points played in total.
H2H Evgenii Bakin 6–3 Oleg Shvydkyi Oleg Shvydkyi has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:21What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Bakin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Bakin
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bakin 1252 vs Shvydkyi 1041
Bakin
Wrong
both rated, 211 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bakin 60% vs Shvydkyi 40%
Bakin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bakin 50% vs Shvydkyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bakin -1 · Shvydkyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Bakin) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shvydkyi form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBakin 1.30 / Shvydkyi 3.40
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Bakin)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13126362
Bakin1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 24 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Shvydkyi3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog30% won 16 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBakin6wins
AwayShvydkyi3wins
1 of 9 to a deciderBakin leads 6–3, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBakin100%3 of 3
AwayShvydkyi50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bakin3Shvydkyi6n = 9Shvydkyi took 6 of 9
S2Bakin4Shvydkyi5n = 9Shvydkyi took 5 of 9
S3Bakin6Shvydkyi3n = 9Bakin took 6 of 9
S4Bakin5Shvydkyi1n = 6Bakin took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricBakinShvydkyiB − SBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match35.135.0+0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBakinShvydkyiBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 109 vs 62 / 17357.8%35.8%63 / 109 vs 62 / 173Avg sets wonper match2.11.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.332.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BakinBakin 1.30/Shvydkyi 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.9%
Bakin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shvydkyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WMay 29 · 10:08E. Bakin3711411113O. Shvydkyi35911781
LMay 29 · 07:30E. Bakin2051140O. Shvydkyi351113113
WMar 22 · 06:00E. Bakin351111133O. Shvydkyi2366110
LJan 3 · 10:00E. Bakin2495100O. Shvydkyi341111123
WDec 6 · 09:30E. Bakin3711411113O. Shvydkyi35911961
WOct 30 · 05:47E. Bakin45511611123O. Shvydkyi49119118102
WAug 12 · 07:00E. Bakin4271111133O. Shvydkyi391198111
LJun 6 · 16:30E. Bakin399101191O. Shvydkyi4011126113
WMar 30 · 16:00E. Bakin375121193O. Shvydkyi251110131
E. Bakin10
LSep 14 · 08:00O. Badanin2.381111113E. Bakin1.538950WSep 14 · 07:00S. Zherykhin2.005510E. Bakin1.731111113LSep 14 · 05:30A. Lysyi5.00114311113E. Bakin1.1491111762WAug 2 · 10:08E. Bakin1.67117117113S. Honcharenko2.1091141182WAug 2 · 08:58E. Bakin1.80111168113O. Levytskyi1.9169111142LAug 2 · 07:58S. Honcharenko2.501111123E. Bakin1.5084100LAug 2 · 06:58R. Sveshnykov1.6111811113E. Bakin2.20511811LAug 2 · 05:29I. Sorochan2.1011812113E. Bakin1.679111041WJun 27 · 10:15E. Bakin1.301111113A. Lysyi3.404790WJun 27 · 09:00E. Bakin1.14511117113A. Danylov5.0011651172
O. Shvydkyi10
LSep 14 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.361111113O. Shvydkyi3.005760WSep 14 · 06:00S. Zherykhin1.672087111O. Shvydkyi2.10181111133WSep 14 · 05:00O. Badanin1.5051191182O. Shvydkyi2.50115115113LSep 10 · 10:03Y. Urezchenko1.251311113O. Shvydkyi3.7511450LSep 10 · 08:30S. Zherykhin2.2512811113O. Shvydkyi1.571011791LSep 10 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi3.50101140Y. Urezchenko1.281213113LSep 10 · 06:30V. Khyzhnyak2.0011811113O. Shvydkyi1.73311281WSep 10 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi2.2011129113V. Matviichuk1.614101181WAug 16 · 16:00V. Yarovyi4.501159101O. Shvydkyi1.1781111123LAug 16 · 14:30A. Lysyi1.401111113O. Shvydkyi2.759830
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