TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Evgenii Bakin
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611117116711116
Anatoliy Lysyi
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeEvgenii Bakin to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEvgenii Bakin above · Anatoliy Lysyi below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 87 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Evgenii Bakin at 76.6%
87 points played in total.
H2H Evgenii Bakin 6–2 Anatoliy Lysyi Anatoliy Lysyi has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:09What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Bakin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Bakin
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bakin 1218 vs Lysyi 1207
Bakin
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bakin 20% vs Lysyi 80%
Lysyi
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bakin 40% vs Lysyi 90%
Lysyi
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bakin -2 · Lysyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Bakin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBakin 1.25 / Lysyi 3.75
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Bakin)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13166137
Bakin1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 23 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Lysyi3.75
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog31% won 34 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back11% 7 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBakin6wins
AwayLysyi2wins
1 of 8 to a deciderBakin leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBakin100%5 of 5
AwayLysyi66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bakin5Lysyi3n = 8Bakin took 5 of 8
S2Bakin6Lysyi2n = 8Bakin took 6 of 8
S3Bakin7Lysyi1n = 8Bakin took 7 of 8
S4Bakin2Lysyi1n = 3Bakin took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home450%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricBakinLysyiB − LBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match36.528.6+7.9per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBakinLysyiBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 109 vs 183 / 41755.1%43.9%60 / 109 vs 183 / 417Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match34.935.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BakinBakin 1.25/Lysyi 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Bakin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bakin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 14 · 05:30E. Bakin4491111762A. Lysyi40114311113
WJun 27 · 10:15E. Bakin331111113A. Lysyi204790
WJun 27 · 05:30E. Bakin361112133A. Lysyi22110110
LMay 18 · 09:00E. Bakin239950A. Lysyi331111113
WMay 1 · 17:39E. Bakin4291111113A. Lysyi24116341
WMay 1 · 15:30E. Bakin341211113A. Lysyi2410860
WApr 11 · 05:30E. Bakin421111203A. Lysyi3057180
WDec 6 · 07:00E. Bakin3811511113A. Lysyi36911881
E. Bakin10
LSep 21 · 10:03E. Bakin2.2521381122Y. Zvolynskyi1.571111115113LSep 21 · 08:00I. Sorochan1.731111113E. Bakin2.007720LSep 21 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.617111411113E. Bakin2.2011816882WSep 21 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi3.0012671162E. Bakin1.361011116113LSep 14 · 10:38E. Bakin1.91311100O. Badanin1.801113123LSep 14 · 09:00E. Bakin1.30671171O. Shvydkyi3.4011114113LSep 14 · 08:00O. Badanin2.381111113E. Bakin1.538950WSep 14 · 07:00S. Zherykhin2.005510E. Bakin1.731111113LSep 14 · 05:30A. Lysyi5.00114311113E. Bakin1.1491111762WAug 2 · 10:08E. Bakin1.67117117113S. Honcharenko2.1091141182
A. Lysyi10
WSep 21 · 10:35A. Lysyi3.5011117113I. Sorochan1.28571141WSep 21 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi3.503670A. Lysyi1.281111113WSep 21 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.2277100A. Lysyi4.001111123LSep 21 · 05:00I. Sorochan1.25691111113A. Lysyi3.7511116862LSep 20 · 17:29S. Zherykhin2.201122A. Lysyi1.61310WSep 20 · 16:30A. Lysyi1.671111113A. Danylov2.105860WSep 20 · 15:30A. Lysyi1.281111123V. Hyriavyi3.5089100LSep 20 · 14:00A. Lysyi1.91770V. Matviichuk1.8011112WSep 20 · 13:00A. Lysyi1.571211623S. Zherykhin2.251091111WSep 14 · 05:30A. Lysyi5.00114311113E. Bakin1.1491111762
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