TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Oleg Shvydkyi
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210611711116611
Evgenii Bakin
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:18 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeEvgenii Bakin to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleg Shvydkyi above · Evgenii Bakin below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Evgenii Bakin at 64.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Shvydkyi 4–6 Evgenii Bakin Oleg Shvydkyi has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:18What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Bakin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Bakin
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shvydkyi 1057 vs Bakin 1232
Bakin
Correct
both rated, 175 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shvydkyi 60% vs Bakin 20%
Shvydkyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shvydkyi 40% vs Bakin 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shvydkyi -1 · Bakin -3
Bakin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Bakin) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bakin form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShvydkyi 3.00 / Bakin 1.36
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Bakin)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13166217
Shvydkyi3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 14) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 18 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Bakin1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 14) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 23 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShvydkyi4wins
AwayBakin6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBakin leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShvydkyi57.1%4 of 7
AwayBakin100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shvydkyi7Bakin3n = 10Shvydkyi took 7 of 10
S2Shvydkyi6Bakin4n = 10Shvydkyi took 6 of 10
S3Shvydkyi3Bakin7n = 10Bakin took 7 of 10
S4Shvydkyi2Bakin4n = 6Bakin took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShvydkyiBakinS − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.334.4+1.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShvydkyiBakinBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 164 vs 62 / 11036%56.4%59 / 164 vs 62 / 110Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.235.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BakinShvydkyi 3.00/Bakin 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.2%
Bakin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bakin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 14 · 09:00O. Shvydkyi3711114113E. Bakin31671171
LMay 29 · 10:08O. Shvydkyi35911781E. Bakin3711411113
WMay 29 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi351113113E. Bakin2051140
LMar 22 · 06:00O. Shvydkyi2366110E. Bakin351111133
WJan 3 · 10:00O. Shvydkyi341111123E. Bakin2495100
LDec 6 · 09:30O. Shvydkyi35911961E. Bakin3711411113
LOct 30 · 05:47O. Shvydkyi49119118102E. Bakin45511611123
LAug 12 · 07:00O. Shvydkyi391198111E. Bakin4271111133
WJun 6 · 16:30O. Shvydkyi4011126113E. Bakin399101191
O. Shvydkyi10
LSep 21 · 06:30I. Sorochan1.221111113O. Shvydkyi4.004680LSep 14 · 10:08O. Shvydkyi3.254880A. Lysyi1.331111113WSep 14 · 09:00E. Bakin1.30671171O. Shvydkyi3.4011114113LSep 14 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.361111113O. Shvydkyi3.005760WSep 14 · 06:00S. Zherykhin1.672087111O. Shvydkyi2.10181111133WSep 14 · 05:00O. Badanin1.5051191182O. Shvydkyi2.50115115113LSep 10 · 10:03Y. Urezchenko1.251311113O. Shvydkyi3.7511450LSep 10 · 08:30S. Zherykhin2.2512811113O. Shvydkyi1.571011791LSep 10 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi3.50101140Y. Urezchenko1.281213113LSep 10 · 06:30V. Khyzhnyak2.0011811113O. Shvydkyi1.73311281
E. Bakin10
LSep 14 · 10:38E. Bakin1.91311100O. Badanin1.801113123LSep 14 · 09:00E. Bakin1.30671171O. Shvydkyi3.4011114113LSep 14 · 08:00O. Badanin2.381111113E. Bakin1.538950WSep 14 · 07:00S. Zherykhin2.005510E. Bakin1.731111113LSep 14 · 05:30A. Lysyi5.00114311113E. Bakin1.1491111762WAug 2 · 10:08E. Bakin1.67117117113S. Honcharenko2.1091141182WAug 2 · 08:58E. Bakin1.80111168113O. Levytskyi1.9169111142LAug 2 · 07:58S. Honcharenko2.501111123E. Bakin1.5084100LAug 2 · 06:58R. Sveshnykov1.6111811113E. Bakin2.20511811LAug 2 · 05:29I. Sorochan2.1011812113E. Bakin1.679111041
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