TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Evgenii Bakin
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
2111311811115211
Yurii Zvolynskyi
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingEvgenii Bakin above · Yurii Zvolynskyi below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 85 set 5, 2-11
85 points played in total.
H2H Evgenii Bakin 3–5 Yurii Zvolynskyi Evgenii Bakin has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Zvolynskyi beat Bakin 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Zvolynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zvolynskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBakin 2.25 / Zvolynskyi 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Zvolynskyi)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13168897
Bakin2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog20% won 3 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back11% 1 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Zvolynskyi1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite75% won 92 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it97% 58 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it91% 76 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBakin3wins
AwayZvolynskyi5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderZvolynskyi leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBakin50%3 of 6
AwayZvolynskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bakin6Zvolynskyi2n = 8Bakin took 6 of 8
S2Bakin2Zvolynskyi6n = 8Zvolynskyi took 6 of 8
S3Bakin5Zvolynskyi3n = 8Bakin took 5 of 8
S4Bakin0Zvolynskyi5n = 5Zvolynskyi took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricBakinZvolynskyiB − ZBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match35.637.6−2.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBakinZvolynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime61 / 110 vs 303 / 57455.5%52.8%61 / 110 vs 303 / 574Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZvolynskyiBakin 2.25/Zvolynskyi 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Zvolynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zvolynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 21 · 07:00E. Bakin5111816882Y. Zvolynskyi547111411113
WMay 19 · 09:59E. Bakin351113113Y. Zvolynskyi2581160
LMay 19 · 08:30E. Bakin371271081Y. Zvolynskyi44101112113
LMay 18 · 07:00E. Bakin30751171Y. Zvolynskyi3911116113
LMar 14 · 10:30E. Bakin341291121Y. Zvolynskyi45101113113
WMar 8 · 08:00E. Bakin45115117113Y. Zvolynskyi4281181142
LJan 19 · 08:00E. Bakin204970Y. Zvolynskyi331111113
WMar 30 · 14:00E. Bakin331111113Y. Zvolynskyi196760
E. Bakin10
WSep 21 · 09:00E. Bakin1.25611117113A. Lysyi3.7511761162LSep 21 · 08:00I. Sorochan1.731111113E. Bakin2.007720LSep 21 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.617111411113E. Bakin2.2011816882WSep 21 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi3.0012671162E. Bakin1.361011116113LSep 14 · 10:38E. Bakin1.91311100O. Badanin1.801113123LSep 14 · 09:00E. Bakin1.30671171O. Shvydkyi3.4011114113LSep 14 · 08:00O. Badanin2.381111113E. Bakin1.538950WSep 14 · 07:00S. Zherykhin2.005510E. Bakin1.731111113LSep 14 · 05:30A. Lysyi5.00114311113E. Bakin1.1491111762WAug 2 · 10:08E. Bakin1.67117117113S. Honcharenko2.1091141182
Y. Zvolynskyi10
LSep 21 · 09:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.6191181182I. Sorochan2.20113114113WSep 21 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.17313611113O. Shvydkyi4.50111111492WSep 21 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.617111411113E. Bakin2.2011816882LSep 21 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.2277100A. Lysyi4.001111123LSep 16 · 10:29V. Simchuk1.441111113Y. Zvolynskyi2.637690WSep 16 · 09:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.201111113O. Badanin4.334550WSep 16 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.9111811113M. Zavoloka1.80411661WSep 16 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi3.2511611113V. Simchuk1.33911581WSep 16 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.4011712113S. Honcharenko2.759111091LSep 15 · 10:29P. Shulhachyk1.441111113113Y. Zvolynskyi2.6388131152
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