TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136804
Played Sep 16Finished
Yurii Zvolynskyi
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1197111210119––
Serhii Honcharenko
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeYurii Zvolynskyi to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Zvolynskyi above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 80 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Yurii Zvolynskyi at 64.9%
80 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Zvolynskyi 56–34 Serhii Honcharenko Serhii Honcharenko has won 34 of their 90 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:30What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Zvolynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-34 in 90
Zvolynskyi
Correct
gap of 22 in 90, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zvolynskyi 1330 vs Honcharenko 1284
Zvolynskyi
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zvolynskyi 60% vs Honcharenko 20%
Zvolynskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zvolynskyi 50% vs Honcharenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zvolynskyi -1 · Honcharenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Zvolynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZvolynskyi 1.40 / Honcharenko 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Zvolynskyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13136804
Zvolynskyi1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite75% won 90 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it97% 57 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it90% 74 of 82
Honcharenko2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 68 of 170
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZvolynskyi7wins
AwayHoncharenko3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderZvolynskyi leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZvolynskyi77.8%7 of 9
AwayHoncharenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zvolynskyi9Honcharenko1n = 10Zvolynskyi took 9 of 10
S2Zvolynskyi4Honcharenko6n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S3Zvolynskyi6Honcharenko4n = 10Zvolynskyi took 6 of 10
S4Zvolynskyi3Honcharenko3n = 6split evenly
S5Zvolynskyi3Honcharenko2n = 5Zvolynskyi took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZvolynskyiHoncharenkoZ − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.035.4+3.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZvolynskyiHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime306 / 579 vs 433 / 83652.9%51.8%306 / 579 vs 433 / 836Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZvolynskyiZvolynskyi 1.40/Honcharenko 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Zvolynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zvolynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi4111712113S. Honcharenko399111091
WSep 15 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi331111113S. Honcharenko183780
WSep 9 · 10:33Y. Zvolynskyi43117311113S. Honcharenko4581111782
LSep 9 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi186480S. Honcharenko331111113
WSep 4 · 05:30Y. Zvolynskyi331111113S. Honcharenko164660
LSep 3 · 10:35Y. Zvolynskyi47111071362S. Honcharenko494121111113
WSep 3 · 09:30Y. Zvolynskyi441111110113S. Honcharenko4691181262
LSep 1 · 10:34Y. Zvolynskyi4811118992S. Honcharenko44561111113
WSep 1 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi361111143S. Honcharenko2549120
WAug 27 · 16:30Y. Zvolynskyi47119115113S. Honcharenko3961151162
Y. Zvolynskyi10
LSep 15 · 10:29P. Shulhachyk1.441111113113Y. Zvolynskyi2.6388131152WSep 15 · 09:30Y. Zvolynskyi2.001111153M. Zavoloka1.7388130WSep 15 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.501111113S. Honcharenko2.503780WSep 15 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.251112113V. Matviichuk3.7581040LSep 15 · 06:00Y. Zvolynskyi2.507670P. Shulhachyk1.501111113LSep 10 · 16:00Y. Zvolynskyi3.40612891V. Simchuk1.30111011113WSep 10 · 15:00I. Dubinin1.33311661Y. Zvolynskyi3.2511911113LSep 10 · 14:00M. Pohorilyi1.4411711113Y. Zvolynskyi2.63911731LSep 10 · 12:30R. Hryhoriev1.3613911203Y. Zvolynskyi3.0011119181WSep 9 · 10:33S. Honcharenko2.6381111782Y. Zvolynskyi1.44117311113
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 16 · 05:00O. Badanin1.5061111952S. Honcharenko2.50114511113LSep 15 · 09:58S. Honcharenko2.3852110M. Zavoloka1.531111133LSep 15 · 08:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.501111113S. Honcharenko2.503780LSep 15 · 07:30S. Honcharenko3.4071080P. Shulhachyk1.301112113LSep 15 · 06:30M. Zavoloka1.831211113S. Honcharenko1.8310980WSep 15 · 05:30S. Honcharenko1.5011116113V. Matviichuk2.50551161LSep 11 · 10:10S. Honcharenko2.009980N. Priadko1.731111113LSep 11 · 09:00S. Sideltsev1.251111113S. Honcharenko3.757390WSep 11 · 07:30V. Simchuk1.67811561S. Honcharenko2.1011311113LSep 9 · 10:33S. Honcharenko2.6381111782Y. Zvolynskyi1.44117311113
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