TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130807
Played Sep 15Finished
Serhii Honcharenko
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115115611116––
Vasyl Matviichuk
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Vasyl Matviichuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 66 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 62.1%
66 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 96–65 Vasyl Matviichuk Vasyl Matviichuk has won 65 of their 161 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:54What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Honcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
96-65 in 161
Honcharenko
Correct
gap of 31 in 161, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1345 vs Matviichuk 1051
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 294 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 40% vs Matviichuk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 50% vs Matviichuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko -2 · Matviichuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Honcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 1.50 / Matviichuk 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Honcharenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13130807
Honcharenko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 97 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it95% 52 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it87% 79 of 91
Matviichuk2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 30 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back7% 5 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko9wins
AwayMatviichuk1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHoncharenko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko100%9 of 9
AwayMatviichukn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko9Matviichuk1n = 10Honcharenko took 9 of 10
S2Honcharenko7Matviichuk3n = 10Honcharenko took 7 of 10
S3Honcharenko5Matviichuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Honcharenko5Matviichuk1n = 6Honcharenko took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoMatviichukH − MBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match37.429.2+8.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoMatviichukBasisWin rate · lifetime435 / 837 vs 290 / 61452%47.2%435 / 837 vs 290 / 614Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoHoncharenko 1.50/Matviichuk 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 07:00S. Honcharenko331111113V. Matviichuk238780
WSep 3 · 08:00S. Honcharenko331111113V. Matviichuk155640
WAug 31 · 10:28S. Honcharenko4111117123V. Matviichuk368711101
WAug 31 · 06:00S. Honcharenko4411911133V. Matviichuk305113111
LAug 30 · 09:00S. Honcharenko217950V. Matviichuk331111113
WAug 27 · 12:00S. Honcharenko3911116113V. Matviichuk32861171
WAug 25 · 05:30S. Honcharenko3811511113V. Matviichuk28711461
WAug 24 · 07:00S. Honcharenko521111910113V. Matviichuk4248111272
WAug 19 · 08:00S. Honcharenko3911116113V. Matviichuk26571131
WAug 14 · 09:00S. Honcharenko341112113V. Matviichuk2781090
S. Honcharenko10
LSep 15 · 06:30M. Zavoloka1.831211113S. Honcharenko1.8310980LSep 11 · 10:10S. Honcharenko2.009980N. Priadko1.731111113LSep 11 · 09:00S. Sideltsev1.251111113S. Honcharenko3.757390WSep 11 · 07:30V. Simchuk1.67811561S. Honcharenko2.1011311113WSep 11 · 06:00N. Priadko1.4011580S. Honcharenko2.751311113LSep 11 · 05:00M. Pohorilyi1.221112113S. Honcharenko4.0051040LSep 9 · 10:33S. Honcharenko2.6381111782Y. Zvolynskyi1.44117311113LSep 9 · 09:00S. Honcharenko1.91511481V. Kurliuk1.8011611113WSep 9 · 08:00M. Zavoloka1.5041280S. Honcharenko2.501114113WSep 9 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.506480S. Honcharenko2.501111113
V. Matviichuk10
LSep 15 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.251112113V. Matviichuk3.7581040WSep 10 · 09:00V. Matviichuk1.4011111011133Y. Urezchenko2.75661213112LSep 10 · 08:00V. Khyzhnyak3.251111133V. Matviichuk1.3345110LSep 10 · 07:00S. Zherykhin2.631211113V. Matviichuk1.4410450LSep 10 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi2.2011129113V. Matviichuk1.614101181WSep 8 · 10:04V. Matviichuk1.441111113V. Hyriavyi2.637530LSep 8 · 09:00V. Matviichuk2.25691191M. Zavoloka1.5711113113WSep 8 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.753570V. Matviichuk1.401111113LSep 8 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.531111113V. Matviichuk2.388780LSep 8 · 05:30V. Hyriavyi3.2511511123V. Matviichuk1.337119101
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