TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Kolbusovsky
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 14Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 14
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117911118511114
Josef Vintr
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:33 and never touched — 76.5% is still 76.5%
Graded at full timeJosef Vintr to win
76.5%
76.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Kolbusovsky above · Josef Vintr below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 88 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Josef Vintr at 76.5%
88 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kolbusovsky 1–4 Josef Vintr Michal Kolbusovsky has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Vintr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Vintr
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolbusovsky 1204 vs Vintr 1453
Vintr
Wrong
both rated, 249 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolbusovsky 0% vs Vintr 40%
Vintr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolbusovsky 0% vs Vintr 60%
Vintr
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolbusovsky -14 · Vintr -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Vintr) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vintr form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolbusovsky 3.00 / Vintr 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Vintr)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13166479
Kolbusovsky3.00
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 18)
Lost last 14
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog34% won 53 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Vintr1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 18 days ago (Sep 03) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite81% won 17 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKolbusovsky1wins
AwayVintr4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderVintr leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolbusovskyn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVintr100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolbusovsky1Vintr4n = 5Vintr took 4 of 5
S2Kolbusovsky1Vintr4n = 5Vintr took 4 of 5
S3Kolbusovsky3Vintr2n = 5Kolbusovsky took 3 of 5
S4Kolbusovsky1Vintr3n = 4Vintr took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKolbusovskyVintrK − VBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match37.641.6−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolbusovskyVintrBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 459 vs 40 / 7645.5%52.6%209 / 459 vs 40 / 76Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.340.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VintrKolbusovsky 3.00/Vintr 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.8%
Vintr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolbusovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 11 · 08:55M. Kolbusovsky371081181J. Vintr4312119113
LMay 31 · 16:50M. Kolbusovsky31121270J. Vintr391414113
WDec 19 · 15:05M. Kolbusovsky45137311113J. Vintr40111111432
LDec 19 · 11:50M. Kolbusovsky33951181J. Vintr4011117113
LDec 5 · 07:50M. Kolbusovsky42511111052J. Vintr46115712113
M. Kolbusovsky10
LSep 21 · 11:50T. Jr1.53111111113M. Kolbusovsky2.38691381LSep 18 · 17:25M. Nemec1.91911911153M. Kolbusovsky1.80118112132LSep 18 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.63413941P. Cibik1.44111111113LSep 18 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky5.003690R. Zeman1.141111113LSep 18 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.259416101M. Nemec1.57111114123LSep 17 · 21:23O. Sebek1.73118511113M. Kolbusovsky2.0071111682LSep 17 · 20:20O. Sebek1.36111112113M. Kolbusovsky3.00691481LSep 17 · 19:50M. Dlask1.501111113M. Kolbusovsky2.508260LSep 17 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.25411341M. Nemec1.5711911113LSep 12 · 18:00R. Zeman1.131211113M. Kolbusovsky5.5010370
J. Vintr10
LSep 21 · 11:20S. Matousch1.91612127113J. Vintr1.801110101172LSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123LSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143LSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100WSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113WSep 1 · 14:00P. Cibik1.80109120J. Vintr1.901211143WSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:20P. Cibik1.736101311133J. Vintr2.001112115112WSep 1 · 10:50J. Rolik2.2559111162J. Vintr1.57111138113WAug 26 · 17:50S. Matousch1.9581491182J. Vintr1.751112119113
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