TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13155027
Played Sep 18Finished
Michal Nemec
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111189111121513
Michal Kolbusovsky
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 13Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 13
How it is goingMichal Nemec above · Michal Kolbusovsky below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 13-13
Point 98 set 5, 13-13
98 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Michal Nemec 38–23 Michal Kolbusovsky Michal Kolbusovsky has won 23 of their 61 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Nemec beat Kolbusovsky 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolbusovsky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbusovsky form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNemec 1.91 / Kolbusovsky 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolbusovsky)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13155027
Nemec1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 80 of 230
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 82
Kolbusovsky1.80
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 13
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite36% won 4 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it50% 3 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNemec5wins
AwayKolbusovsky5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNemec80%4 of 5
AwayKolbusovsky80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nemec5Kolbusovsky5n = 10split evenly
S2Nemec6Kolbusovsky4n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S3Nemec6Kolbusovsky4n = 10Nemec took 6 of 10
S4Nemec5Kolbusovsky4n = 9Nemec took 5 of 9
S5Nemec2Kolbusovsky4n = 6Kolbusovsky took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNemecKolbusovskyN − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.741.5+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNemecKolbusovskyBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 766 vs 209 / 45847.5%45.6%364 / 766 vs 209 / 458Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolbusovskyNemec 1.91/Kolbusovsky 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolbusovsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nemec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 14:20M. Nemec48111114123M. Kolbusovsky399416101
WSep 17 · 18:50M. Nemec4211911113M. Kolbusovsky22411341
LSep 11 · 18:50M. Nemec47812611102M. Kolbusovsky481110114123
WSep 10 · 12:50M. Nemec341112113M. Kolbusovsky2481060
LSep 4 · 17:25M. Nemec351161171M. Kolbusovsky4213117113
LSep 4 · 14:20M. Nemec46111241182M. Kolbusovsky51914116113
LSep 2 · 16:20M. Nemec3968111132M. Kolbusovsky46111158113
WJul 24 · 19:20M. Nemec50911118113M. Kolbusovsky3711551152
LJul 15 · 12:20M. Nemec4491114732M. Kolbusovsky521171211113
WJul 14 · 12:20M. Nemec621111236113M. Kolbusovsky5454251192
M. Nemec10
LSep 18 · 16:50R. Zeman1.361113133M. Nemec3.00811110LSep 18 · 15:50M. Nemec2.385790P. Cibik1.531111113WSep 18 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.259416101M. Nemec1.57111114123WSep 17 · 21:53M. Dlask1.6799110M. Nemec2.101111133WSep 17 · 20:50M. Nemec2.6313177143M. Dlask1.44111511121LSep 17 · 19:20O. Sebek3.4011101112113M. Nemec1.3081221462WSep 17 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.25411341M. Nemec1.5711911113WSep 15 · 21:20M. Nemec2.0011101311113M. Dlask1.7371215652LSep 15 · 20:20M. Nemec2.63101171172J. Mach1.44129119113WSep 15 · 19:20M. Nemec2.001111113M. Dlask1.737390
M. Kolbusovsky10
LSep 18 · 16:20M. Kolbusovsky2.63413941P. Cibik1.44111111113LSep 18 · 15:20M. Kolbusovsky5.003690R. Zeman1.141111113LSep 18 · 14:20M. Kolbusovsky2.259416101M. Nemec1.57111114123LSep 17 · 21:23O. Sebek1.73118511113M. Kolbusovsky2.0071111682LSep 17 · 20:20O. Sebek1.36111112113M. Kolbusovsky3.00691481LSep 17 · 19:50M. Dlask1.501111113M. Kolbusovsky2.508260LSep 17 · 18:50M. Kolbusovsky2.25411341M. Nemec1.5711911113LSep 12 · 18:00R. Zeman1.131211113M. Kolbusovsky5.5010370LSep 12 · 16:55R. Zeman1.251111113M. Kolbusovsky3.754660LSep 12 · 16:25P. Cibik1.5011111112123M. Kolbusovsky2.50136114102
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