TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Simon Matousch
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61112101210711117
Josef Vintr
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Vintr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSimon Matousch above · Josef Vintr below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 97 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Josef Vintr at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Simon Matousch 7–5 Josef Vintr Josef Vintr has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:52What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vintr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Matousch
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matousch 1365 vs Vintr 1422
Vintr
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matousch 0% vs Vintr 20%
Vintr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matousch 30% vs Vintr 50%
Vintr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matousch -6 · Vintr -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vintr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vintr form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatousch 1.91 / Vintr 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vintr)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13166561
Matousch1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog27% won 18 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Vintr1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite81% won 17 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatousch5wins
AwayVintr5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatousch75%3 of 4
AwayVintr66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matousch4Vintr6n = 10Vintr took 6 of 10
S2Matousch7Vintr3n = 10Matousch took 7 of 10
S3Matousch4Vintr6n = 10Vintr took 6 of 10
S4Matousch4Vintr3n = 7Matousch took 4 of 7
S5Matousch3Vintr3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatouschVintrM − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.541.6−0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatouschVintrBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 336 vs 40 / 7845.8%51.3%154 / 336 vs 40 / 78Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.240.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VintrMatousch 1.91/Vintr 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vintr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Matousch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 11:20S. Matousch48612127113J. Vintr491110101172
WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch351112123J. Vintr24410100
LSep 1 · 12:50S. Matousch341138121J. Vintr4591111143
LAug 26 · 17:50S. Matousch5081491182J. Vintr541112119113
WAug 26 · 14:20S. Matousch331111113J. Vintr196670
WAug 25 · 12:20S. Matousch50111378113J. Vintr47511111192
WAug 18 · 17:29S. Matousch50812711123J. Vintr481110116102
LAug 18 · 16:20S. Matousch4598111162J. Vintr45111193113
LAug 11 · 08:25S. Matousch2577110J. Vintr351111133
LJun 18 · 16:50S. Matousch45101161172J. Vintr50128118113
S. Matousch10
LSep 21 · 10:20S. Matousch3.00107100T. Jr1.361211123LSep 16 · 21:23P. Cibik1.7211111113S. Matousch2.00851171LSep 16 · 20:20S. Matousch1.8310111081P. Cibik1.8312512113LSep 16 · 19:20S. Matousch1.6711911882Z. Vyskocil2.10611611113LSep 16 · 18:20S. Matousch2.7513137462T. Barsa1.4011111111113LSep 14 · 22:00S. Matousch1.9013871182L. Vich1.801111117113WSep 14 · 20:20P. Cibik1.676760S. Matousch2.101111113WSep 14 · 19:50L. Vich1.618570S. Matousch2.201111113WSep 14 · 18:50S. Matousch1.7311713113Z. Vyskocil2.005111191LSep 9 · 17:20M. Cesak1.571411133S. Matousch2.25128110
J. Vintr10
LSep 21 · 10:50M. Kolbusovsky3.00119115113J. Vintr1.3671181142LSep 3 · 13:33J. Vintr1.8371211101P. Cibik1.8311146123LSep 3 · 12:50J. Vintr2.381111117122T. Jr1.53913511143LSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100WSep 3 · 10:50P. Cibik1.809860J. Vintr1.911111113WSep 1 · 14:00P. Cibik1.80109120J. Vintr1.901211143WSep 1 · 12:50J. Vintr1.8091111143S. Matousch1.911138121LSep 1 · 11:20P. Cibik1.736101311133J. Vintr2.001112115112WSep 1 · 10:50J. Rolik2.2559111162J. Vintr1.57111138113WAug 26 · 17:50S. Matousch1.9581491182J. Vintr1.751112119113
Upcoming Matches
S. Matousch
Nothing scheduled
J. Vintr
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.