TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129228
Played Sep 14Finished
Lukas Vich
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511711––––
Simon Matousch
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:25 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Vich to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Vich above · Simon Matousch below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 53 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Lukas Vich at 60.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Vich 1–1 Simon Matousch Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:25What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vich
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vich 1542 vs Matousch 1326
Vich
Wrong
both rated, 216 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vich 80% vs Matousch 20%
Vich
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vich 70% vs Matousch 20%
Vich
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vich +4 · Matousch +1
Vich
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Vich)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matousch form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVich 1.61 / Matousch 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Vich)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13129228
Vich1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 34 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it64% 21 of 33
Matousch2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 18 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back11% 4 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeVich1wins
AwayMatousch1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricVichMatouschV − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match46.545.5+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVichMatouschBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 511 vs 160 / 34046.8%47.1%239 / 511 vs 160 / 340Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VichVich 1.61/Matousch 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Vich · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Matousch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 31 · 22:00L. Vich46111011772S. Matousch48512911113
WAug 31 · 19:20L. Vich47111186113S. Matousch4375111192
L. Vich10
WSep 14 · 18:20P. Cibik1.83111191192L. Vich1.83471113113WSep 7 · 21:50L. Vich2.0011411133Z. Vyskocil1.737119111WSep 7 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.73117811L. Vich2.0081111113WSep 7 · 19:50L. Vich1.611111113R. Zeman2.206640LSep 7 · 18:20P. Cibik1.83113711113L. Vich1.8391111952LSep 6 · 22:35T. Rein1.921211113L. Vich1.7810540LSep 6 · 21:25L. Vich2.3858111182T. Rein1.53111175113WSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113WSep 6 · 19:25Z. Vyskocil1.731110111162L. Vich2.00712913113WSep 2 · 22:03L. Vich1.671711123M. Juhasz2.10158100
S. Matousch10
WSep 14 · 18:50S. Matousch1.7311713113Z. Vyskocil2.005111191LSep 9 · 17:20M. Cesak1.571411133S. Matousch2.25128110LSep 9 · 16:20S. Matousch2.7578100M. Cesak1.401111123LSep 9 · 15:20S. Matousch1.8082131142Z. Dusek1.911111119113LSep 9 · 14:20S. Matousch1.9171111942P. Cibik1.80119911113LSep 3 · 14:04T. Jr1.171111113S. Matousch4.503530LSep 3 · 12:20S. Matousch1.57119371P. Cibik2.2581111113WSep 3 · 11:20S. Matousch2.251112123J. Vintr1.57410100LSep 3 · 10:20S. Matousch2.6381111552T. Jr1.44118411113LSep 1 · 13:30J. Rolik2.20811148123S. Matousch1.611171211102
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