TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13128956
Played Sep 14Finished
Pavel Cibik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1141179111113911
Lukas Vich
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Cibik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Cibik above · Lukas Vich below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 97 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Pavel Cibik at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Cibik 33–38 Lukas Vich Pavel Cibik has won 33 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:14What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vich
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-38 in 71
Vich
Correct
gap of 5 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cibik 1500 vs Vich 1532
Vich
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cibik 100% vs Vich 60%
Cibik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cibik 90% vs Vich 70%
Cibik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cibik +5 · Vich +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cibik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cibik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCibik 1.83 / Vich 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cibik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13128956
Cibik1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Vich1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCibik6wins
AwayVich4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCibik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCibik57.1%4 of 7
AwayVich33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cibik7Vich3n = 10Cibik took 7 of 10
S2Cibik4Vich6n = 10Vich took 6 of 10
S3Cibik6Vich4n = 10Cibik took 6 of 10
S4Cibik3Vich6n = 9Vich took 6 of 9
S5Cibik3Vich1n = 4Cibik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCibikVichC − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.038.8−1.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCibikVichBasisWin rate · lifetime314 / 683 vs 243 / 52246%46.6%314 / 683 vs 243 / 522Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CibikCibik 1.83/Vich 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cibik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 18:20P. Cibik43113711113L. Vich4591111952
LAug 11 · 20:20P. Cibik29118461L. Vich4181111113
LAug 5 · 20:50P. Cibik24111481L. Vich3811511113
WAug 4 · 21:54P. Cibik45114118113L. Vich4491181152
WAug 4 · 18:20P. Cibik3951211113L. Vich371110791
WJul 26 · 21:53P. Cibik331111113L. Vich185760
LJul 26 · 20:55P. Cibik45118115102L. Vich51811911123
WJul 17 · 18:20P. Cibik44116115113L. Vich4071151162
LJul 3 · 20:20P. Cibik28115841L. Vich4291111113
WJun 14 · 21:59P. Cibik4071111113L. Vich32119571
P. Cibik10
WSep 13 · 13:55P. Cibik1.6161113113R. Zeman2.201191171WSep 13 · 12:50Z. Dusek1.837111091P. Cibik1.8311812113WSep 13 · 11:50P. Cibik1.531111123R. Zeman2.3857100WSep 13 · 10:20M. Nemec2.2511126101P. Cibik1.5741411123WSep 12 · 18:29O. Hula1.67119891P. Cibik2.1061111113LSep 12 · 17:25O. Hula2.10111213113P. Cibik1.6713101121WSep 12 · 16:25P. Cibik1.5011111112123M. Kolbusovsky2.50136114102WSep 12 · 14:55R. Zeman2.3859111152P. Cibik1.53111188113WSep 11 · 21:55P. Cibik1.2511811113M. Kolbusovsky3.35611981WSep 11 · 20:50M. Kolbusovsky2.6311116852P. Cibik1.44591111113
L. Vich10
WSep 7 · 21:50L. Vich2.0011411133Z. Vyskocil1.737119111WSep 7 · 20:50Z. Vyskocil1.73117811L. Vich2.0081111113WSep 7 · 19:50L. Vich1.611111113R. Zeman2.206640LSep 7 · 18:20P. Cibik1.83113711113L. Vich1.8391111952LSep 6 · 22:35T. Rein1.921211113L. Vich1.7810540LSep 6 · 21:25L. Vich2.3858111182T. Rein1.53111175113WSep 6 · 19:55T. Jr2.00811991L. Vich1.7311811113WSep 6 · 19:25Z. Vyskocil1.731110111162L. Vich2.00712913113WSep 2 · 22:03L. Vich1.671711123M. Juhasz2.10158100WSep 2 · 20:55L. Vich1.8311113113M. Juhasz1.83891181
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